财政分权体制下中国税收自动稳定器功能研究

China's Tax Automatic Stabilizer Function under Fiscal Decentralization System

特定的财政分权模式不仅影响着税收调节宏观经济的深度和广度,还影响着税收资源的最终去向,由此决定了税收自动稳定器功能的强弱。本文通过构建包含多级政府的随机动态一般均衡(DSGE)模型研究了财政分权对税收自动稳定器功能的影响,结果发现:如果中央政府降低其在全国总税收中的分成比例,则能提升税收的自动稳定器功能;提高向中西部地区的财政转移支付力度将有利于税收发挥自动稳定器功能;降低全国间接税负担或相对降低中西部地区的间接税负担,将有利于税收自动稳定器功能的发挥。据此,从保障税收充分发挥自动稳定器功能的角度出发,中央政府可采用“一放一抓”的方案:一方面对地方政府进行财政收入放权,另一方面对地方政府加强税收监管并积极引导其优化财政支出结构。

The question of how to bring taxation into full play as an automatic stabilizer,so as to complement the camera-optional fiscal policy and jointly ensurethe macroeconomic“stability in progress”,is a major issue that needs to be addressed at this stage of China's development.However,under China's unique fiscal decentralization system,the automatic stabilizer function of the tax revenue will manifest several characteristics different from what are described in textbooks and classical literature.Understanding these characteristics can not only enrich the literature on the fiscal automatic stabilizer,but also provide the government with some system optimization suggestions targeting the stability of the macro economy,which is of important research significance.The central government's share of the national tax revenue and the transfer payments to local governments determine the final state of fiscal decentralization and are the core elements in China's fiscal decentralization system,which can directly affect the depth and breadth ofthe macroeconomic regulation by taxation and the regional distribution of the fiscal expenditure,thus ultimately determining the strength of the automatic stabilizer function of taxation.Therefore,by constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that includes governments at different levels,this paper focuses on the effects of changes in the central government's tax collection authority and transfer payments on the function of the tax automatic stabilizer.Through a series of numerical simulations,this paper makes the following findings:if the central government reduces its share of the total national tax revenue,it can enhance the function of the tax automatic stabilizer;increasing the fiscal transfer payments to the central and western regions will be conducive to the function of the tax automatic stabilizer;reducing the national indirect tax burden or relatively reducing the indirect tax burden in the central and western regions will be conducive to thefunction of the tax automatic stabilizer.Furthermore,the following robustness tests are conducted:first,an econometric study is conducted with the help of Chinese provincial panel data;second,for some parameters that cannot be estimated precisely,the calibration values are changed;third,a new DSGE model is constructed without the influence of demographic factors.The above robustness tests confirm that the conclusions of this paper have a clear basis from econometric analysis,are not affected by the values of parameters that cannot be measured precisely,and are not affected by the demographic differences between regions,and have good robustness.Based on the above findings,from the perspective of ensuring that tax can fully play its role as an automatic stabilizer,the paper suggests that the central government adopt the following method:on the one hand,delegate more fiscal revenue to local governments;on the other hand,strengthen the tax supervision of local governments,and actively guide them to optimize the structure of the fiscal expenditure.The research in this paper enriches the research literature onthe tax automatic stabilizer and provides an important theoretical basis for major strategic arrangements such as the state's efforts to strengthen transfer payments to the central and western regions,the efforts to promote the equalization of basic public services among regions,and the guidance to regions to optimize the fiscal expenditure structure.