增值税减税对地区制造业生产率的影响研究

A Study on Impact of VAT Reduction on Regional Manufacturing Productivity

基于2004—2019年省级数据,实证分析增值税减税对地区制造业生产率的影响效应与作用路径。结果表明:增值税减税显著提高了地区制造业生产率;地区制度环境发育越好,其增值税减税效应越突出,且“营改增”后增值税减税对制造业生产率的提升作用有所增强;增值税减税通过技术创新、融资约束路径影响制造业生产率,人力资本积累路径则不显著;进一步分析表明,增值税减税所带来的税制结构优化推动了地区制造业生产率的提升。鉴于此,立足财税环境现实,增值税减税应注重策略的调整,在税制优化中增强减税成效;提升增值税减税的技术创新、融资约束路径红利,加强人力资本积累方面的减税力度;同步优化直接税制,拓展税制结构转变所带来的减税空间,推动地区制造业高质量发展。

Using the provincial data from 2004-2019,the article empirically analyzes the effect and path of VAT tax reduction on regional manufacturing productivity.The findings show that the VAT reduc-tion significantly improves regional manufacturing productivity.The better the regional institutional environ-ment is,the more prominent the VAT tax reduction effect is,and after the"VAT reform",the effect of VAT reduction on manufacturing productivity has been enhanced.VAT reduction affects manufacturing pro-ductivity through the path of technological innovation and financing constraints,but the path of human cap-ital accumulation is insignificant.Furthermore,the optimization of tax structure caused by VAT reduction promotes the improvement of regional manufacturing productivity.In view of this,based on the reality of China's fiscal and tax environment,China's value-added tax reduction should pay attention to the adjust-ment of strategy,promote the effect of tax reduction in the tax system optimization,enhance the technologi-cal innovation and financing constraint path dividend of VAT tax reduction,strengthen the tax reduction in human capital accumulation,improve the direct taxation at the same time,expand the scope for tax cuts brought about by changes in the tax structure,and promote high-quality development of the manufacturing sector.