审计收费与宏观经济风险预测

Audit Fees and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting

基于2006—2017年中国A股上市公司分省份加总层面的年度数据,检验审计收费信息对宏观经济风险的预测功能。研究发现,上市公司加总的审计收费增长与未来经济增长显著负相关,与未来经济波动程度显著正相关,表明审计收费具有对未来宏观经济风险的预测功能。加总的审计努力成本同样能反映未来的经济风险变动趋势。进一步检验发现,小规模事务所审计收费对宏观经济风险的预测功能更强。此外,审计收费的预测期长度大于会计盈余,而且审计收费对经济风险的预测作用在不同经济周期和经济波动下呈非对称效应。

Based on the annual data of China's A-share listed companies at the provincial aggregate level from 2006 to 2017,this paper aims to investigate the forecast value of audit fees to macroeconomic risks.The results show that aggregate audit fees growth is significantly negatively correlated with future eco-nomic growth and positively correlated with future economic fluctuation,which indicates that audit fees have predicting function to future macroeconomic risks.The aggregate audit effort can also reflect the trend of fu-ture economic risk changes.Further examination shows that audit fees of non-Big-Four accounting firms has a stronger function than Big-Four accounting firms in forecasting economic risks.Besides,the forecast period of audit fees is longer than accounting earnings.In addition,the forecasting function to economic risks of audit fees is asymmetric in different economic cycles and periods of economic fluctuations.