第三方物流配送下需求预测信息分享策略研究

Research on demand-forecasting information sharing strategy under third-party logistics distribution mode

近些年,随着电商平台的快速发展,平台商的需求预测信息分享问题引起广泛关注.平台商可以收集和分析大量的消费者数据获得较为精准的需求预测信息,比供应商和第三方物流商更有信息优势.为了解决因需求信息不对称导致的供应链效率低下,构建并分析了三种市场权力结构下拥有需求预测信息的平台商给物流商分享、给供应商分享和不分享信息情形的决策模型,得到了平台商的最优需求预测信息分享策略.研究发现,供应商市场权力较大情形下,平台商给物流商分享信息是最优策略;供应商市场权力较小情形下,平台商给供应商分享信息是最优策略;随着平台商服务效率的降低,平台商、信息获得者和整个供应链的信息分享价值减小;供应链成员的市场权力越大,平台商服务效率对其信息分享价值的影响越小.

With the rapid development of platforms,the demand-forecasting information sharing from a platform had attracted widespread attention in recent years.The platform can collect and analyze a large amount of the consumer data to obtain accurate demand-forecasting information,which had more information advantages than a supplier and a third-party logistics.In order to solve the low efficiency of the supply chain caused by the asymmetry of demand information,the decision models under three market power structures where the platform shared information with the third-party logistics,shared information with the supplier and didn′t share information were established and analyzed,and the platform′s optimal demand-forecasting information sharing strategy was obtained.The results showed that sharing in formation with the third-party logistics was the optimal strategy when the supplier′s market power was greater,and sharing information with the supplier was the optimal strategy when the supplier′s market power was weaker.The values of information sharing for the platform,information receiver and the whole supply chain decreased with the decreasing of the platform′s service efficiency;the greater the market power of supply chain member was,the less the impact of the platform′s service efficiency on its information sharing value was.