证券分析师估值模型选择偏好及其对目标价的影响研究——基于企业特征角度

Research on the Choice Preference of Security Analysts Valuation Model and Its Influence on the Target Price:Based on the Enterprise Characteristics

以2017—2020年证券分析师研报为依据,将分析师估值模型选择偏好与分析师目标价结合探讨,并率先提出目标价投资参考价值这一全新概念且对其评估方法进行设计。研究发现,分析师存在特定的估值模型类型偏好,并且在不同行业中偏好不同的估值模型。然而,分析师偏好的估值模型不一定能够生成质量良好的目标价。对于不同特征的企业,分析师存在迥然各异的估值模型选择偏好,该偏好对目标价具有显著影响。结论可帮助分析师优化估值模型选择,提高目标价质量。

Based on securities analyst research reports from 2017 to 2020,this paper discusses analysts preference for model selection and analysts target price,and takes the lead in proposing the new concept of target price investment reference value and designing its evaluation method.The results show that analysts have specific preferences for valuation model and prefer different valuation models in different industries.However,analysts preferred valuation models may not necessarily generate high-quality target prices.For enterprises with different characteristics,analysts have different preferences for valuation model selection,which has a significant impact on the target price.The conclusion can help analysts optimize the selection of valuation model selection and improve the quality of target prices.