2013至2021年我国人布鲁氏菌病发病重心轨迹特征分析

Gravity center shifts in human brucellosis incidence across China:a 2013-2021 analysis

目的探讨2013年至2021年我国人布鲁氏菌病(简称布病)发病重心轨迹特征。方法收集整理2013年至2021年我国31个省、自治区和直辖市人口信息、布病疫情监测数据,计算发病重心并绘制气泡图,探索重心轨迹变化规律。结果布病发病重心位于人口重心北部,向西南方向移动,方向角为203.35°。与2013年相比,2021年发病重心迁移了291.17 km。在经线上向西移动267.31 km,在纬线上向南移动115.42 km,经线上移动的距离为纬线的2.32倍。2013年至2021年,发病率呈现先增长后降低再增长的趋势。2021年发病69771例,发病率为4.94/10万;2021年发病率是2013年的1.55倍。结论布病在由牧区向半牧区和农区移动的同时,发病重心向西南迁移,疫情防控形势依然严峻,应加强对西部、南部地区的防控。

Objective To explore the characteristics of gravity centers in human brucellosis incidence across China from 2013 to 2021.Methods Demographic information and the number of incident cases of human brucellosis in China between 2013 and 2021 were collected.Gravity centers of human brucellosis incidence were calculated and depicted with bubble charts.Results The gravity center of human brucellosis incidence was located in the north of the population gravity center,shifting towards the southwest.The direction angle associated with this shift was 203.35 degrees.Compared with 2013,the gravity center had shifted by 291.17 km in 2021.The distance of the westward shift was 267.31 km in longitude and 115.42 km south in latitude,and the longitudinal shift distance was 2.32 times the latitude.From 2013 to 2021,the incidence of human brucellosis exhibited a fluctuating pattern characterized by an initial increase,followed by a subsequent decrease,and then another increase.In 2021,there were 69771 cases,with an incidence rate of 4.94 per 100000.The incidence in 2021 was 1.55 times higher than that in 2013.Conclusion Human brucellosis is moving from pastoral areas to semi-pastoral and agricultural areas,and the gravity center is moving to the southwest.Prevention and control of human brucellosis is still challenging,and special attention should be paid to these high incidence areas.