考虑能源出力不确定性的光伏接入微网优化调度方法

Optimization Scheduling Method for Photovoltaic Access Microgrid Considering Energy Output Uncertainty

由于现有的调度方法在微网区间内协调消耗电量大,导致风光电消纳被抑制,基于此研究考虑能源出力不确定性的光伏接入微网优化调度方法。运用统计方法对光伏功率出力拟合,生成最初场景,计算场景距离,得到场景中的索引,并计算消除场景发生的概率,获得场景树。对不同时间段内的光伏出力预测情况进行描述,获取其波动特征。运用动态调度逆序求解贝尔曼方程,计算得到全局最优解;运用分段函数对价值函数进行估计,将状态集合映射到相关价值中;对状态变量进行聚合,判断价值估计结果。通过实时信息的不断修正,完成对未来动态的预测,获得对应日内调度的优化策略结果完成调度。实验结果表明,区域A~区域E的占比为2.65%,区域F、区域J的占比为2.87%,区域H~区域I的占比为2.94%,结果符合预期,有效促进了风光点消纳,实现微网调度方法的良好应用。

Due to the large coordinated power consumption of the existing scheduling methods in the microgrid interval,resulting in the suppression of wind photovoltaic consumption,based on this research,the optimal scheduling method of photovoltaic access microgrid considering the uncertainty of energy output is studied.Use statistical methods to fit the photovoltaic power output.Generate the initial scene,calculate the scene distance,obtain the index in the scene,and calculate the probability of eliminating the scene to obtain the scene tree.Describe the prediction and prediction of photovoltaic output in different time periods and obtain their fluctuation characteristics.The global optimal solution is obtained by solving Bellman equation in reverse order of dynamic scheduling.Use segmented functions to estimate the value function and map the state set to the relevant value.Aggregate state variables to determine the value estimation results.By continuously correcting real-time information,predict future dynamics and obtain optimization strategy results corresponding to intraday scheduling to complete scheduling.The experimental results show that the proportion of region A~E is 2.65%,region F and J is 2.87%,and region H~I is 2.94%,which is in line with expectations and effectively promotes the consumption of scenic spots,achieving good application of scheduling methods.