2022年长江流域历史罕见干旱期典型水厂取水能力分析

Analysis of water intake capacity of typical water plants in extreme dryperiod of Yangtze River Basin in 2022

为直观准确地评估2022年长江中下游干流旱情发展对区间取水厂的影响,建立了沿江典型水厂取水能力分析流程模型。利用最邻近分析算法放样测站与水厂最邻近线上点,并基于关联标识分组计算区间长度,推导水厂近似实测距离,构建取水能力评估模型以动态监测旱情发展。结果表明:模型可较准确地反映水厂取水受旱情影响的程度。该段干流区间在2022年9月底和10月底遭遇2次旱情高峰,受影响较多的水厂集中在沙市(二郎矶)-监利、汉口(武汉关)-黄石港-九江区间。期间长江中上游出现过短时、大规模、大范围的强降水,降雨对短期内旱情的缓解效果明显。研究结果可为区域性防灾减灾水量调度、后期水厂规划与建设提供参考。

In order to intuitively and accurately assess the impact of the drought in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River on water intake plants in 2022,a flow model for analyzing the water intake capacity of typical water plants along Yangtze River was established.The nearest neighbor analysis algorithm was used to calculate the interval length based on the association identification group.The approximate measured distance of the water plant was derived,and the water intake capacity evaluation model was built to dynamically monitor the development of drought.The results showed that the model can accurately reflect the impact of drought on water intake.At the end of September and the end of October in 2022,this section of the main stream encountered two drought peaks,and the affected water plants mainly concentrated in the Shashi(Erlangji)-Jianli and Hankou(Wuhan Customs)-Huangshi harbor-Jiujiang sections.In the middle and upper reaches of Yangtze River,there were short duration,large scale and wide range of heavy rain,which had a significant effect on the short-term drought relief.The results can provide a reference for regional disaster prevention and mitigation water scheduling and later water plant planning and construction.