大中型水利水电工程社会稳定风险因素识别分析--以引江补汉工程为例

Discussion on identification of social stability risk factors of large and medium-sized water conservancy and hydropower projects:a case of river diversion project from Yangtze River to Hanjiang River

目前,可参照的社会稳定风险因素识别标准或技术导则较为欠缺。为提高大中型水利水电工程社会稳定风险分析的工作效率和保障设计成果质量,结合工作经验,以引江补汉工程为例,分析论述了大中型水利水电工程社会稳定风险因素识别的思路、方法,从政策规划和审批程序、征地拆迁及补偿、技术和经济方案、生态环境影响、项目管理、安全卫生、经济社会影响、媒体舆情等8个方面归纳总结出风险因素清单。研究结果表明:在引江补汉工程中识别出隧道及地下建筑工程的施工可能引起地面沉降的影响、水资源配置方案、水价承受能力、调水对丹江口坝下航道的影响、调水对梯级电站发电的影响等方面的风险因素。项目风险因素识别应本着简单明了、重点突出、实事求是的原则,有针对性分析,不遗漏、不夸大,全面查找风险因素。

At present,there is a lack of standards or technical guidelines for the identification of social stability risk factors,in order to improve the work efficiency of social stability risk analysis of large and medium-sized water conservancy and hydropower projects and ensure the quality of design results,combined with work experience,taken the river diversion project from the Yangtze River to the Hanjiang River as an example,the ideas,methods and lists of risk factors for social stability were scientifically discussed.The list of risk factors was summarized from eight aspects,including policy planning and approval procedures,land requisition,demolition and compensation,technical and economic solutions,ecological environmental impact,project management,safety and health,economic and social impact,and media public opinion.The results showed that the identification of project risk factors should be based on the principle of simplicity,emphasis and seeking truth from facts,targeted analysis,neither omission nor exaggeration,comprehensive search for risk factors.