广西北部湾沿海城市群气候承载力分析与评价

Analysis and evaluation of climate carrying capacity of Beibu Gulf urban cluster in south Guangxi

利用气候自然影响因子和社会经济发展因子构建城市气候承载力定量评价体系,定量评价2000—2019年广西北部湾沿海城市群——北海、防城港、钦州的气候承载力变化。结果表明,研究期内三市气候天然容量波动增大,北海和防城港增长趋势显著,反映了城市化对气候的影响;极端气候事件压力波动剧烈,总体增长不显著;各地城市气候压力和城市协调发展力在城市发展进程中均呈上升趋势,但城市协调发展力的增长仍不足以平衡自然影响因子和城市经济发展造成的负面影响。北部湾城市群气候承载力整体呈显著波动下降趋势,反映气候环境对沿海城市建设发展制约越来越明显;三市气候承载力对气候天然容量、极端气候事件压力指标的变化响应敏感,极端低温、大风、干旱(持续无降雨)和暴雨事件是沿海城市群气候系统稳定性的主要威胁因子。在今后北部湾沿海城市群发展规划中,提升气候承载力需要提高科技环保和防御自然灾害的能力,走低能耗绿色发展道路,以应对气候变化带来的压力。

The quantitative evaluation system of urban climate carrying capacity,constructed by using climate natural influence factors and socio-economic development factors,was used to quantitatively evaluate the climate carrying capacity changes of Guangxi Beibu Gulf coastal city cluster(Beihai,Fangchenggang and Qinzhou)from 2000 to 2019.The results show that the climate natural capacity of the three cities increases with fluctuations during the study period,and the growth trend of Beihai and Fangchenggang is significant,reflecting the influence of urbanization on climate;the pressure of extreme climate events fluctuates sharply and the overall growth is not significant;the city climate pressure and city coordinated development ability of each city show an increasing trend in the process of urban development,but the growth of city coordinated development ability,is still insufficient to balance the negative impacts brought by natural climate factors and urban economic development.The overall climate carrying capacity of Beibu Gulf urban cluster shows a fluctuating and significant downward trend,reflecting the increasingly obvious constraints of the climate environment on the construction and development of coastal cities;the climate carrying capacity of three cities is sensitive to the changes of climate natural capacity and extreme climate event pressure indicators,and extreme low temperature,strong wind,persistent no rainfall and heavy rainfall events are the main threat factors to the stability of the climate system of the coastal urban agglomeration.In future development planning of the Beibu Gulf urban cluster,it is necessary to enhance the climate carrying capacity to improve the ability of science and technology to protect the environment,and defend against natural disasters,and taking the road of low energy consumption to cope with the pressure brought by climate change.