基于现代化的中国省级碳排放时空演变及影响因素研究

Spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of provincial carbon emissions in China based on modernization

使用2000—2020年中国省级碳排放及现代化指标数据,采用传统统计和空间自相关分析方法分析省级碳排放及现代化指标的时空演变特征,并利用地理探测器方法探测现代化水平对碳排放的影响。结果表明:中国30个省的碳排放总量在近20年整体上呈现持续增长,碳排放总量增长率却在波动下降;碳排放总量呈现由东部向西部梯次递减的走势,并且东、中部地区之间的碳排放量差距有所缩小;中国碳排放量高值区域主要集中在环渤海地区,以2015年为转折点,碳排放量高值区域的变化大致划分为扩张阶段和收缩阶段;中国省域尺度碳排放具有显著的空间正向相关性,省级碳排放的空间集聚水平表现出先不断提升再逐渐降低的特征;在局部空间自相关分析中,呈正向空间关联的区域数量均多于负向空间关联的区域数量,中国大多数省份的碳排放量受其周围省份的影响较大;现代化指标时间变化趋势显著,空间分布演变特征鲜明;交通运输、平均受教育年限、信息化水平、人口绝对规模、工业化水平对碳排放有较强的解释力度,影响因子两两共同作用对碳排放的影响均强于单个因子的作用。

Based on the data of China’s provincial carbon emission and modernization index from 2000 to 2020,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of provincial carbon emission and modernization index were analyzed by traditional statistics and spatial autocorrelation analysis methods,and the influence of modernization level on carbon emission was detected by geographic detector method.The results show that the total carbon emission of 30 provinces in China has shown continuous growth in the past 20 years,while the total carbon emission growth rate has fluctuated down.It is worth noting that total carbon emissions showed negative growth in 2015.From the perspective of different regions,the total carbon emission showed a descending trend from east to west,and the carbon emission gap between east and central regions narrowed.From the perspective of spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emissions,high-value regions of China’s carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in the Bohai Rim region.With 2015 as the turning point,the changes of high-value regions of carbon emissions can be roughly divided into expansion stage and contraction stage.In the spatial correlation analysis,carbon emissions at the provincial scale in China have a significant spatial positive correlation,and the spatial concentration level of carbon emissions at the provincial level shows the characteristics of increasing first and then decreasing gradually.The number of regions with positive spatial correlation is more than that of regions with negative spatial correlation.Carbon emissions of most provinces in China are greatly affected by their neighboring provinces.Hebei is always in the high-high agglomeration area,and Shandong,Henan and Shanxi also show the characteristics of high-high agglomeration for many times.In the aspect of the modernization index research,the time change trend of modernization index is significant,and the spatial distribution evolution characteristics are distinct,which accords with China’s national conditions.From the perspective of influencing factors,transportation,average years of education,informatization level,absolute population size and industrialization level have strong explanatory power for carbon emissions.The combined effect of the two factors on carbon emissions is stronger than that of a single factor.The key interaction factors,including environmental regulation,absolute population size and industrialization level,have strong interaction effects on the spatial differentiation of provincial carbon emissions.