考虑源-荷不确定性的电热联合系统分布鲁棒优化调度

Distributionally robust optimal dispatching of integrated electricity and heating system considering source-load uncertainty

可再生能源出力及负荷需求的不确定性严重影响电热联合系统的鲁棒优化运行。基于此,提出了一种改进Wasserstein度量的考虑源-荷不确定性电热联合系统分布鲁棒优化调度模型。建立基于极端场景下改进Wasserstein度量的风电预测功率模糊集,缩减风电预测功率模糊集的规模,进而提出基于梯度归一化改进Wasserstein生成对抗网络方法对负荷需求的不确定性进行建模,提高负荷不确定性建模的精度;构建综合考虑发电成本、调节成本等的分布鲁棒优化调度模型,并基于对偶理论和拉格朗日乘子法将该模型转换成可求解的数学模型;以修改的9节点系统及IEEE 118节点系统为例验证了所提出的模型具有更高的求解效率以及更好的经济性和鲁棒性。

The robust optimal operation of integrated electricity and heating system is severe affected by the uncertainty of renewable energy output and load demand.On this basis,a distributionally robust optimal dispatching(DROD)model of integrated electricity and heating system based on the improved Wasserstein metric considering the uncertainty of source-load is proposed.The ambiguity set of wind power prediction value based on the improved Wasserstein metric in extreme scenarios is established to reduce the scale of the ambiguity set for wind power prediction value.Furthermore,the improved Wasserstein generative adversarial networks based on gradient normalization is proposed to model the uncertainty of load demand and improve the accuracy of load uncertainty modeling.Then,the DROD model considering generation cost,regulation cost and so on is constructed.And the model is transformed into a solvable mathematical model based on dual theory and the Lagrange multiplier method.Taking the modified 9-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system as the example,it is proved that the proposed model has higher solution efficiency,better economy and robustness.