“横琴驱动”:旅游容量视角下粤港澳大湾区旅游增长模式探析——以珠海市为例

Analyzing the Tourism Growth Model of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area From the Perspective of Tourism Capacity:How Did Hengqin New Area Drive Zhuhai’s Tourism Growth?

当前,旅游业的恢复与增长受到诸多关注,围绕如何应对旅游容量困境的讨论再度兴起。本研究以珠海市为例,采用香洲区、斗门区、金湾区、横琴新区2012—2022年的旅游空间面板数据,从旅游容量的视角出发,借助自回归、空间自相关、空间自回归等计量模型对横琴新区旅游业发展带来的区域影响进行研究。结果发现,在珠海市旅游业容量逐年趋向饱和的情况下,横琴新区的旅游业发展对邻近区域依然保持着显著的高值集聚效应及正向溢出影响。该结果不仅彰显了横琴新区旅游业以点带面的辐射赋能作用,同时也为“横琴驱动”发展模式提供了实践证据与量化模型。最终,本文提出深耕细作锻造增长新动能、稳步建设环横琴旅游带和以点带面构建旅游发展新格局等政策建议,以期助力粤港澳大湾区旅游业可持续、高质量发展。

The recovery and growth of the tourism industry are currently a topic of heated debate,reigniting the topic of how to deal with the dilemma of tourism capacity.This study uses the spatial panel data of the tourism industry from four of Zhuhai’s administrative districts,namely,Xiangzhou,Doumen,Jinwan,as well as Hengqin New Area,to study the regional impacts of the tourism development in Hengqin from the perspective of tourism capacity with the help of econometric models such as autoregression,spatial autocorrelation,and spatial autoregression.Results show that Hengqin’s tourism development maintains a significantly high-value agglomeration effect and a positive spillover effect on neighboring areas when the tourism capacity of Zhuhai tends to be saturated year by year.Such a result not only demonstrates the radiating empowering effect of Hengqin’s tourism development but also provides empirical evidence and a quantitative model.It also puts forward policy suggestions,including forging new growth momentum,building a tourism belt around Hengqin,and constructing a new tourism development pattern starting from one favorite tourist destination,in order to help the sustainable and highquality development of the tourism industry in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.