区域空间“蔓延—收缩”形态并存对城市经济发展的影响——基于广东省21个地级以上市的实证分析

The Influence of Coexistence Between Regional Spatial Sprawl and Contraction on Urban Economic Development:An Empirical Analysis of Prefecture-level Cities in Guangdong Province

当前我国的城市发展步入了“蔓延”与“收缩”并存的阶段,“增长与收缩”已经成为城市转型的全新议题。本文基于2007—2017年广东省21个地级以上市的面板数据,建立计量模型,尝试探究快速城市化背景下城市蔓延与局部收缩两种形态对区域经济发展的影响。研究发现:在以“人口”和“土地”为载体的城市中,城市蔓延不同于增长,在一定程度上影响了区域的经济发展,蔓延程度越严重,经济发展越脆弱;城市收缩对经济发展产生影响,但根据地域差异,影响程度不一;“蔓延—收缩”双重现象并存具有动态变化性,对区域经济的发展具有不确定性。

China’s urban development has currently entered the stage of coexistence between urban sprawl and urban contraction,with growth and contraction becoming new issues for urban transformation.Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities in Guangdong province from 2007 to 2017,this paper establishes an econometric model that attempts to explore the impact of urban sprawl and local contraction on regional economic development against the background of the rapid urbanization process.Results show that in cities where population and land are two of its main carriers,urban sprawl,different from growth,affects regional economic development to a certain extent.The more serious the sprawl,the more fragile the economic development.Urban shrinkage also affects economic development,the degree of which varies according to regional differences.The coexistence of urban sprawl and urban shrinkage is dynamically changing,bringing uncertainties to the development of the regional economy.