摘要
现有水利工程在运行多年的情况下面临结构老化、运行条件改变等问题,无法满足设计条件下的安全运行,引发了现有水利工程和续建新工程的协同调度问题。针对新旧水利工程的协同防洪调度问题,收集历史洪水数据,采用皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布和正态分布分别拟合洪峰流量分布,运用蒙特卡罗方法随机选取大于现状设计流量的伪随机数作为设计洪水的洪峰流量,再利用“峰比”同倍比放大法设计15d洪水过程线。选取新旧工程各自的特征流量进行组合,以构成不同的运行工况,并计算在各种工况下新旧工程协同防洪的风险值。以江西省赣抚平原的岗前渡槽(旧渡槽)及其续建工程岗前倒虹吸(新渡槽)为研究对象,分析工程特点后选取旧渡槽的现状防洪安全最小运行流量、设计流量以及新渡槽的设计流量、加大流量作为该工程的特征流量。结果表明:基于P-Ⅲ分布的洪水风险计算结果比正态分布的结果偏高约40%,说明洪峰分布采取P-Ⅲ分布可以模拟更加不利的洪水条件。用P-Ⅲ分布拟合洪峰流量,新渡槽按设计标准运行时,旧渡槽的防洪风险率为23%;而旧渡槽按设计标准运行时,新渡槽的防洪风险率为8%,说明渡槽协同防洪时,旧渡槽面临的防洪风险更大。研究成果可为新旧水利工程协同防洪调度规则的制定提供参考。
Under the condition of many years of operation,the existing water conservancy projects are faced with problems such as structure aging and operation condition change,which cannot meet the safe operation under the design conditions,causing the problem of cooperative scheduling between the existing water conservancy projects and the new projects.In order to solve the problem of cooperative flood control and dispatch of new and old water conservancy projects,this paper collects historical flood data,and uses Pearson-Ⅲdistribution and normal distribution to fit the peak flow distribution respectively.Monte Carlo method is used to randomly select the pseudo-random numbers,which are more than the current design standard,and then uses the peak-ratio amplification method to design the 15 d flood process.The characteristic flows of the new and old projects are combined to form different operating conditions,and the risk of collaborative flood control under various working conditions are calculated.This paper takes the pre-post aqueduct(the old aqueduct)in Ganfu Plains of Jiangxi Province and its extension project,inverts siphon(the new aqueduct),as the research objects.After the characteristics of the projects have been analyzed,the characteristic flows of the projects are presented as the minimum operating flow under the current safety control and the design flow of the old aqueduct,and the design flow and increased flow of the new aqueduct.The results show that the flood risk calculation results based on the P-Ⅲdistribution are about 40%higher than that of the normal distribution,indicating that the flood peak distribution using P-Ⅲdistribution can simulate more adverse flood conditions.When the P-III distribution is used to fit the flood peak discharge,the risk rate of the old aqueduct is 23%when the new aqueduct is operated according to the design standard,while the risk rate of the new aqueduct is 8%when the old aqueduct is operated according to the design standard.It indicates that the risk of old aqueduct is higher when aqueducts work together to control floods.
作者
刘开颜
付湘
龚来红
谢亨旺
刘双郡
LIU Kai-yan;FU Xiang;GONG Lai-hong;XIE Heng-wang;LIU Shuang-jun(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei Province,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei Province,China;Jiangxi Central Station of Irrigation Experiment,Nanchang 330201,Jiangxi Province,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2023年第8期157-162,171,共7页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51979199)
江西省水利厅科技项目(202124ZDKT17,202123YBKT15)。