2009—2021年广元市手足口病流行趋势的Joinpoint回归分析

Joinpoint regression analysis on the trends of hand-foot-mouth disease epidemics in Guangyuan City from 2009 to 2021

目的了解广元市手足口病的流行特征,探讨流行趋势。方法收集2009—2021年广元市疾病预防控制中心手足口病疫情资料,应用WPS 2022软件和R 4.2.2软件对数据进行描述性分析。运用Joinpoint回归模型进行分析。以P<0.05为差异有统计学意义。结果2019年为广元市手足口病变化转折点,2009—2019年病例报告呈上升趋势(APC=12.6(95%CI:4.9~20.9),β_(1)=0.119,t=3.068,P=0.005)。2020—2021年呈快速下降趋势,但该趋势无统计学意义(APC=-42.8(95%CI:-81.2~73.5),β_(1)=-0.559,t=-1.161,P=0.279)。男性发病率高于女性(χ^(2)=669,P<0.001);手足口病年度发病呈“N”表现,5月(95%CI:3~7)和8月(95%CI:6~10)为转折点,1—5月发病率呈上升趋势,5—8月发病率呈下降趋势,8—12月略呈上升;年龄发病呈“高升快降拖尾”表现,2岁组(95%CI:2岁组~3岁组)、5岁组(95%CI:2岁组~3岁组)、8岁组(95%CI:8岁组~15岁组)为年龄组发病趋势转折点。结论广元市手足口病发病仍然较高,存在季节性变化;低龄儿童仍是为高发人群,对手足口病的防控应有针对性措施。

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Guangyuan City,and to explore its epidemic trends.Methods The epidemic data of HFMD in Guangyuan Center for Disease Prevention and Control from 2009 to 2021 were collected.Descriptive analysis of the data was conducted by WPS 2022 software and R 4.2.2 software.Joinpoint regression model was used for analysis,and P<0.05 was considered to be statistically significant.Results The year 2019 was the turning point of hand-foot-mouth disease in Guangyuan City,and it showed an upward trend from 2009 to 2019(average percent change(APC)=12.6,95%confidence interval(CI):4.9-20.9,β_(1)=0.119,t=3.068,P=0.005).From 2020 to 2021,it showed a rapid decline trend,but the trend was not statistically significant(APC=-42.8,95%CI:-81.2-73.5,β_(1)=-0.559,t=-1.161,P=0.279).The incidence in males was higher than that in females(χ^(2)=669,P<0.001).The annual incidence of HFMD presented an“N”performance,with May(95%CI:3-7)and August(95%CI:6-10)as the turning points.The incidence increased from January to May,decreased from May to August,and slightly increased from August to December.The age of onset showed a“high rise and fast decline”,with the 2 years old(95%CI:2-3 years old)age group,5 years old(95%CI:2-3 years old)age group and 8 years old(95%CI:8-15 years old)age group as the trend turning points.Conclusions The incidence of HFMD was still high in Guangyuan City with seasonal changes.Young children are still a high incidence population,so targeted measures should be taken to prevent and control HFMD.