碳排放权交易政策是否促进了能源强度的下降:基于重庆碳交易试点的实证

Does the Carbon Trading Mechanism Promote the Decline of Energy Intensity:Demonstration Based on Chongqing Carbon Trading Pilot

碳排放权交易政策能否促进能源强度下降是能源研究领域的重要议题。该文将2014年开始实施的重庆碳排放权交易政策作为准自然实验,以2005-2020年中国省际面板数据为样本,采用合成控制法,研究了碳排放权交易机制与能源强度的关系。结果表明:2015-2020年,碳排放权交易政策显著促进了重庆能源强度下降,重庆能源强度平均每年下降0.1014 tce/万元,下降幅度为7.8161%;碳排放权交易政策能通过促进绿色创新技术发展使能源强度降低;重庆试点的政策效应存在一定的时滞性;与中部和西部地区相比,碳排放权交易政策对东部地区的能源强度降低效应更为显著。据此,提出应加强碳排放权交易政策的利用,避免单纯依赖命令控制型政策;扩大碳排放权交易市场的交易规模,同时以政府引导和市场主导为主要原则,注重协调政府和市场的关系;充分借鉴其他碳交易试点发展经验,结合区域异质性特征,积极推广应用碳排放权交易机制等政策建议。

Whether carbon emission trading policies can promote energy intensity reduction is an essential topic in energy research.The relationship between carbon emission trading policy and energy intensity is investigated using the carbon emission trading policy in Chongqing,which began to be implemented in 2014 as a quasi-natural experiment with a sample of Chinese inter-provincial panel data from 2005 to 2020 using a synthetic control method.The results show that from 2015 to 2020,the carbon emissions trading policy significantly contributed to the decrease of energy intensity in Chongqing,resulting in an average annual decrease of 0.1014 tce/10000 yuan,a decrease of 7.8161%.The carbon emissions trading policy can reduce energy intensity by promoting the development of innovative green technologies;the policy effect of Chongqing pilot has a specific time lag,and compared with the central and western regions of China,the carbon emission trading policy has a more significant effect on the reduction of energy intensity in the eastern region.Accordingly,it is proposed that the utilization of carbon emissions trading policy should be strengthened to avoid relying solely on command-and-control policies;the scale of the carbon emissions trading market should be expanded,while the main principles of government guidance and market dominance should be adopted,and the relationship between the government and the market should be coordinated;the experience of other carbon trading pilots should be fully drawn upon,and the application of carbon emissions trading policy should be actively promoted by taking into account the characteristics of regional heterogeneity.