东北三省煤炭水足迹演变趋势及驱动力分析

Evolution trend and driving force analysis of coal water footprint in three northeast provinces

【目的】煤炭与水资源是东北三省重要的战略性资源,对于保障经济社会发展具有非常重要的意义,而煤炭水足迹可以反映煤炭生产过程中实际的水资源占用状况,有利于推动煤炭资源和水资源的节约利用。【方法】基于国际标准的煤炭水足迹评价模型测算东北三省煤炭生产生命周期水足迹,分析2000—2020年东北三省煤炭水足迹的时空演变趋势,运用LMDI模型定量分析煤炭水足迹的驱动效应,并构建煤炭水足迹强度指标对区域水资源的利用效率水平进行评价。【结果】结果显示:(1)2000—2020年东北三省煤炭水足迹总量呈现先增加后减少的趋势,在2011年达到峰值13.85亿m^(3),原煤和火力发电水足迹占煤炭水足迹总量的97%以上。(2)影响煤炭水足迹的主要驱动因素是资源禀赋效应和经济效应,贡献率分别为42.79%和30.06%,对煤炭水足迹起增量作用,技术效应和部门效应贡献率分别为-14.19%和-12.97%,对煤炭水足迹起减量作用。(3)研究区整体煤炭水足迹强度呈逐渐降低的趋势,在2012年以后趋于平稳。吉林省煤炭水足迹强度下降幅度最大为87.2%,黑龙江省次之,辽宁省最小。【结论】结果表明:东北三省煤炭水足迹下降趋势明显,水资源利用效率不断提高,但原煤和火力发电耗水量大,技术效应对煤炭水足迹的减量作用明显减弱。研究成果可为东北三省促进水资源优化、调整产业布局、提高水资源利用效率提供参考决策,助力实现区域高质量发展。

[Objective]Coal and water resources are important strategic resources in the three northeastern provinces,which are of great significance for ensuring economic society and development.The water footprint of coal can reflect the real water resources occupation in the process of coal production.[Methods]With the help of the international standard coal water footprint evaluation model,this paper calculates the water footprint of coal production life cycle in the three northeast provinces,and analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution trend of coal water footprint in the three northeast provinces from 2000 to 2020,using LMDI model driven effect of quantitative analysis of the coal water footprint,coal water footprint and build strength index to evaluate the efficiency of regional water level.[Results]The results show that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the total coal water footprint in the three northeast provinces shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,reaching a peak of 1.385 billion m^(3) in 2011.The water footprint of raw coal and thermal power generation accounts for more than 97%of the total coal water footprint.(2)The main driving factors affecting coal water footprint are resource endowment effect and economic effect,with contribution rates of 42.79%and 30.06%,respectively,which play an incremental role in coal water footprint.The contribution rates of technology effect and sector effect are-14.19%and-12.97%,respectively,which play a role in reducing coal water footprint.(3)The overall coal water footprint intensity in the study area shows a gradually decreasing trend,and tends to be stable after 2012.The coal water footprint intensity of Jilin Province decreases the most by 87.2%,follows by Heilongjiang Province and Liaoning Province.[Conclusion]The coal water footprint in the three Northeast provinces has an obvious downward trend,and the water resource utilization efficiency is constantly improving.However,the water consumption of raw coal and thermal power generation is large,and the reduction effect of technology on coal water footprint is obviously weakened.The result of this study can provide reference for the three provinces in Northeast China to promote the optimization of water resources,adjust the industrial layout,improve the efficiency of water resources utilization,and help achieve high-quality regional development.