基于三角模糊数的压缩机组外水冷系统失效概率分析

Failure Probability Analysis on the Outside Water-cooling System of Compressor Unit Based on Triangular Fuzzy Number

外水冷系统是输气站场电驱压缩机组的关键辅助设备之一,开展外水冷系统失效分析可以为压缩机组故障停机提供科学的决策依据。在深入研究失效机制的基础上,邀请专家对故障树中基础事件概率进行估算,运用三角模糊理论量化评价语言,再引入左右模糊排序法计算事件发生的模糊失效概率,从而提出一种基于三角模糊数的外水冷系统失效概率分析模型。结果表明:该外水冷系统的模糊失效概率为0.63%,其中过滤器堵塞、空气开关故障、变送器故障是主要原因,与实际运行数据保持一致,验证了基于三角模糊数的外水冷系统失效概率分析模型的可靠性。同时,针对影响外水冷系统失效的薄弱环节提出相应的改进措施,为一线站场外水冷系统的高效运行提供合理化建议。

The outside water-cooling system is one of key auxiliary equipment of the electric drive compressors in the gas transmission station.Carrying out the failure analysis of the outside water-cooling system can provide a scientific decision-making basis for the fail-ure and shutdown of compressor unit.Based on in-depth research of the failure mechanism,experts were invited to estimate the proba-bility of basic events in the fault tree,using the triangular fuzzy number theory to quantify the evaluation language,and then introducing the left and right fuzzy sorting method to calculate the fuzzy failure probability of the event.Then,an analysis model of failure probability of the outside water-cooling system was proposed.The results show that the fuzzy failure probability of the outside water-cooling system is 0.63%.Filter clogging,air switch failure and transmitter failure are the main reasons,which are consistent with the actual operating da-ta,and verify the reliability of failure probabilistic analysis model of the outside water-cooling system based on triangular fuzzy numbers.Meanwhile,some improvement measures are put forward for the weak links affecting the failure of the external water cooling system,which provides the reasonable suggestions for the efficient running of outside water-cooling system at first-line station.