长江经济带农业生产效率和碳排放水平耦合协调发展研究

Study on Coupling Coordination Development of Agricultural Production Efficiency and Carbon Emissions in Yangtze River Economic Belt

基于长江经济带11省(市)2011─2020年的面板数据,应用耦合协调度及重心迁徙模型,测算了长江经济带的农业生产效率和碳排放水平,并探究了两者间耦合协调度的时空变化及其重心的迁徙趋势。结果表明:长江经济带的总体耦合协调度较高,农业生产效率与碳排放水平的提高具有同步性;农业生产效率、碳排放水平、耦合协调度在空间上总体呈现自西南向东北,自内陆向沿海递增的趋势;在2011─2020年期间,长江经济带的农业生产效率以及耦合协调度总体均呈现先下降再上升的变化趋势,以上游的上升速度最快,而农业碳排放强度总体呈现波动下降的趋势,以上游的下降速度最快;耦合协调度在地区间的差异呈现缩小趋势,上游逐渐追赶并超越中下游;长江经济带农业生产效率与碳排放水平的耦合协调重心位于湖南与湖北省的交界处,其自东北向西南、自沿海向内陆迁徙。根据上述研究结果,提出了优先发展长江经济带上游地区、因地制宜制定政策、坚定不移推行政策等建议。

Based on the panel data of 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2020,this paper measured agricultural production efficiency and carbon emission levels,and analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of the coupling coordination degree and the migration trend of its equilibrium point in the Yangtze River Economic Belt by the coupling coordination degree and the migration model of the center of gravity.The results show that the overall coupling coordination level of Yangtze River Economic Belt is high,and the improvement of production efficiency and carbon emission level is synchronous.The spatial trend of production efficiency,carbon emission level and coupling coordination degree is increasing from southwest to northeast and from inland to coastal.During 2011~2020,the agricultural production efficiency and coupling coordination degree of the Yangtze River Economic Belt show a trend of first decreasing and then increasing,with the fastest rate of the upper reaches,while the agricultural carbon emission intensity shows a trend of fluctuating and decreasing,with the fastest rate of the upper reaches.The difference of coupling coordination degree between regions is decreasing,and the upstream gradually catches up and overtakes the middle and lower reaches.The coupling coordination center of agricultural production efficiency and carbon emission level in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is located at the junction of Hunan and Hubei,which migrates from northeast to southwest and from coastal to inland.According to the above research results,we propose to prioritize the development of upstream areas,formulate policies according to local conditions,and firmly implement policies.