生育保险可以促进二孩生育吗?——基于全国抽样调查数据的实证分析

Can Maternity Insurance Promote the Second Child?——An Empirical Analysis Based on National Sample Survey Data

三孩生育政策下,完善生育保险制度已成为未来一个时期我国生育配套支持措施和优化生育政策的重要内容,然而我国对现行生育保险制度与生育的关系缺乏足够的研究和关注。因此,本文基于2019年《全国人口与家庭动态监测调查》数据,运用Mlogit模型对影响非农就业女性享受产假和生育津贴的主要因素进行初步分析,进一步使用Logit模型探讨“全面两孩”政策下生育保险对女性二孩生育意愿的影响及作用路径。研究结果表明:我国生育保险覆盖比例仍然较低,生育津贴享受水平不高;学历越高、就业单位性质越稳定、所在城市越发达的女性享受生育保险待遇的可能性越高;生育津贴和产假均未能显著促进二孩生育意愿,采用倾向值得分匹配法(PSM)分析后结果仍然稳健,但就业单位性质、城市类型、祖辈的照料支持等其他社会经济因素的影响远超生育保险。当前我国生育保险制度所提供的生育津贴水平和产假时间长短对家庭生育支持的作用极为有限,企业层面因女职工雇佣成本增加,导致减少女职工数量等现象的发生,政府对此直接监管难度大。基于此,建议政府通过财政补贴提高生育津贴支付标准;探索建立促进育龄女性就业的税收优惠政策,鼓励用人单位创造生育支持的工作环境;大力推动普惠托育服务体系建设,弥补代际支持的不足。

Under the three-child birth policy,the improvement of the maternity insurance system has clearly become an important part of China’s fertility support measures and optimization of fertility policies in the coming period,but the relationship between China’s current maternity insurance system and fertility lacks sufficient research and attention.Based on the data of the National Population and Family Dynamic Monitoring Survey in 2019,this paper uses the Mlogit model to preliminarily analyze the main factors affecting the maternity leave and maternity allowance of non-agricultural women,and further uses the Logit model to explore the influence and effect path of maternity insurance on women’s willingness to have two children under the comprehensive two-child policy.So as to provide research support for the improvement of fertility support policies under the three-child birth policy.The results of the study show that the coverage ratio of maternity insurance treatment in China is still low,and the level of maternity allowance is not high;The higher the education,the more stable the nature of the employment unit,and the more developed the city where the woman is located,the higher the possibility of enjoying the maternity insurance treatment;The maternity allowance and maternity leave have not significantly promoted the willingness to have a second child,and the findings remain robust after PSM(Propensity Score Matching),but the impact of other socioeconomic factors such as the nature of the employment unit,the type of city,and the care support of the grandparents far exceeds the maternity insurance.At present,the level of maternity allowance and the length of maternity leave provided by China’s maternity insurance system have an extremely limited effect on family birth support,and it is difficult for the government to directly supervise at the enterprise level due to the increase in the employment cost of female employees,resulting in the reduction of the number of female employees and other invisible means.Based on this,it is recommended that the government increase the payment standard of birth allowance through financial subsidies,explore the establishment of preferential tax policies to promote the employment of women of childbearing age,encourage employers to create a working environment for childbirth support,and vigorously promote the construction of an inclusive childcare service system to make up for the lack of intergenerational support.