数字经济发展的就业效应研究

A Study on Employment Effect of Digital Economy Development

党的二十大报告明确提出:建设数字中国,加快发展数字经济。当前我国就业形势依然复杂,新就业形态层出不穷,数字经济作为国民经济发展的“稳定器”和“加速器”对推动劳动力就业意义重大。本文利用2013-2020年中国省级面板数据,从数字基础建设、数字产业化、产业数字化和公共服务数字化4个维度衡量数字经济发展水平,实证分析数字经济发展对就业的影响。研究结果表明:第一,从总体上,数字经济发展对就业的创造效应要大于替代效应。数字经济发展对第一产业就业的负向影响显著,对第二产业就业的线性影响不明显,对第三产业就业的促进作用显著。第二,数字经济发展对就业的影响存在“U”型关系。具体表现为对第一产业就业影响呈现正“U”型特征,对第二产业就业影响呈现倒“U”型特征,即数字经济发展水平的提高会推动第一产业就业先减后增、第二产业就业先增后减,进而推动就业结构向高技术、高技能方向优化。第三,进一步的机制检验发现人力资本存量和科技创新发展在数字经济影响就业的机制中起到中介作用。推动数字经济做强做大做优,促进产业数字化转型升级,弥合区域数字鸿沟,推动人口高质量发展,加快数字化创新步伐,是实现高质量充分就业的必然选择。

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has been clearly proposed to build a digital China and accelerate the development of the digital economy.With complex employment situation in China,new forms of employment are emerging one after another currently.The digital economy,as a“stabilizer”and“accelerator”for the development of the national economy,is of great significance in promoting employment.With the provincial panel data of China from 2013 to 2020,this paper measures the development of the digital economy from the four dimensions including digital infrastructure construction,digital industrialization,industry digitalization and public service digitalization,expecting to empirically analyze the impact of digital economy development on employment.According to the research results,firstly,the creation effect of digital economy development on employment is greater than the substitution effect overall.According to different industries,the development of the digital economy has a significant negative impact on employment in the primary industry,while its linear impact on employment in the secondary industry is not significant.On the contrary,it has a significant promoting effect on employment in the tertiary industry.Second,there is a“U”shaped relationship between the development of the digital economy and employment.Specifically,the impact on employment in the primary industry shows a positive“U-shaped”feature,while that in the secondary industry presents an inverted one.Namely,the improvement of the digital economy may drive the first industry employment to decrease and then increase,while the second industry employment to increase and then decrease,thereby promoting the optimization of the employment structure towards high-tech and high-skilled directions.Thirdly,further mechanism testing has found that the stock of human capital and the development of technological innovation play a mediating role in the mechanism by which the digital economy affects employment.