中国流动人口分布的空间格局和影响因素——基于人口普查分县数据的研究

Spatial Pattern and Influencing Factors of China’s Migrant Population Distribution:A Study Based on County-Level Data from National Population Censuses

中国第七次全国人口普查数据显示2010年以来流动人口的规模和范围持续不断扩大,在全国人口增速放缓的背景下,流动人口依然保持了每年新增超过1000万人的快速增长。人口迁移已经成为影响中国人口空间格局的最主要因素。本文基于第五次至第七次全国人口普查分县数据,系统分析中国流动人口分布的空间格局、演变特征、影响因素。结果表明:流动人口分布的空间格局总体保持稳定,主导特征是高度集聚在东部沿海城市群。但是近10年来,内陆省份的省会城市和部分地级市市区的流动人口增长较快,使流动人口分布呈现出从东部逐步向中西部分散、从超大和特大城市向中小城市分散的趋势。近年来北方流动人口增长快于南方。省际流动人口规模占比从2010年开始持续下降,省内县际流动逐渐成为主导模式。人口流动由受经济因素单一驱动向受社会和自然环境因素共同驱动转变,公共服务机会和环境宜居等因素发挥着越来越重要的作用。当前我国流动人口空间格局的多元化特征越来越突出,为未来推动市民化提出了新的挑战。市民化政策需要解决落户“供给方”(城市)和落户“需求方”(流动人口)的空间错配问题。应从精准识别流动人口的群体和空间差异入手,制定差异化的治理策略和政策工具。

Despite the overall population growth rate slowing down,the scale and scope of the migrant population have continued to expand,maintaining a rapid annual growth of over 10 million people.Based on county-level data from the fifth,sixth,and seventh national censuses,this study conducts a systematic analysis of the spatial distribution,evolutionary characteristics,and influencing factors of China’s migrant population.The study shows that the overall spatial pattern of the distribution of the migrant population remains stable,with the dominant feature still being highly spatial agglomeration.However,in the past decade,a trend of dispersion has emerged,mainly reflected in the gradual dispersion from the highly agglomerated eastern regions to the central and western regions and the dispersion from super-large and mega-cities to medium and small-sized cities.The dominant migration pattern has gradually shifted from interprovincial migration to intra provincial migration.The influencing factors of population migration show a trend of change over time,with public service opportunities and livable environments playing an increasingly important role.The driving force of population migration is gradually shifting from being solely driven by economic factors to being driven jointly by social and natural environmental factors.Urbanization policies need to focus on addressing the spatial mismatch between the“supply side”(cities)and the“demand side”(migrant populations)for settlement.