中国城乡居民消费相对贫困比较研究:1995—2018

A Comparative Study of Relative Consumption Poverty of Urban and Rural Residents in China:1995-2018

本文基于消费的视角,考察了1995—2018年中国城乡居民消费相对贫困的现状、变化趋势、人群分布及影响因素差异。结论表明:城乡居民消费相对贫困呈现不同的变化趋势,城镇呈现先增后减的特征,农村地区则经历了先减后增再减的过程;相对贫困人口变动的因素分解表明,人口基数在各个时期都会导致城镇居民相对贫困人口的增加,农村居民相对贫困人口的减少,而相对贫困比例对相对贫困人口的变动影响比较复杂;城乡居民消费相对贫困群体与非贫困群体的人群分布上并未呈现明显的差异,资产、负债、家庭人口结构是影响城乡居民消费相对贫困的关键因素。随着老龄化时代的到来,医疗、养老将成为城乡居民相对贫困的主要挑战。

Based on the perspective of consumption,this paper examines the current status,change trend,population distribution and influencing factors of relative poverty of urban and rural residents in China from 1995 to 2018.The results show that the relative poverty of urban and rural residents shows different trends in consumption,and the characteristics of urban increase first and then decrease.Rural areas have experienced a process of first decrease,then increase and then decrease;The decomposition of factors of the change of relative poverty population shows that the population base will lead to an increase in the relative poverty of urban residents and a decrease in the relative poverty of rural residents in all periods,and the relative poverty ratio has a complex impact on the change of relative poverty.There is no obvious difference in the distribution of urban and rural residents’consumption relatively poor groups and non-poor groups,and assets,liabilities and household population structure are the key factors affecting the relative poverty of urban and rural residents’consumption.With the advent of the aging era,medical care and old-age care will become the main challenges for the relative poverty of urban and rural residents.