中国生姜出口贸易的“大国效应”分析

Analysis on the“great power effect”of China's ginger export trade

我国是生姜出口贸易大国,生姜的出口量常年居世界首位,国内生姜市场与国际生姜市场有着密不可分的联系。以生姜为例,研究我国小宗农产品出口贸易是否具有“大国效应”,即国内生姜价格的变动能否引起国际生姜价格波动,我国出口量的变动能否引起国际生姜价格的变动。通过分析生姜的国内价格、国际价格和我国生姜出口量等变量之间的内生运行机制,以“出口贸易大国”模型为切入点,利用VAR模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法分析我国生姜出口贸易是否具有“大国效应”。结果表明,国内生姜价格及我国生姜出口量均能显著影响国际生姜价格;我国生姜出口贸易具有“大国效应”。

China is a major ginger exporting country,and the export volume of ginger ranks first in the world for many years.The domestic ginger market is inextricably linked to the international ginger market.This paper takes ginger as an example and examines whether China's export trade in small agricultural products has a“large country effect”,i.e.wheth-er changes in domestic ginger prices can cause fluctuations in international ginger prices and whether changes in China's export volumes can cause changes in international ginger prices.This paper analyzes the endogenous operation mecha-nism between the domestic price,international price and the export volume of the ginger in our country.Take the“export trade”model as the breakthrough point,and the VAR model,impulse response function and variance decomposition meth-ods were used to analyze whether the ginger export trade has the“great power effect”.The results show that domestic gin-ger prices significantly affect international ginger prices,and China's ginger export volume significantly affects interna-tional ginger prices;China's ginger export trade has a“great power effect”.