基于云模型的空管运行系统脆弱性评估

Vulnerability assessment of ATC operation system based on cloud model

为了评估空管运行系统脆弱性,首先,对2011—2018年这8年中1 018起空管不安全事件进行分析,将致因归类后从中提取空管运行系统脆弱性影响因素,按照空管系统管制员、设备、环境、管理4个方面,以及运行环境中飞行机组、机场保障、航空器、签派和军航活动等5个部分,共归纳出28个空管运行系统脆弱性评估指标。其次,通过层次分析和熵权法求得综合权重;考虑脆弱性影响因素,采用具有模糊性和随机性特点的云模型对系统扰动的特性进行评估;采用Delphi法打分后,利用正向云发生器绘制出能直观反映各个指标脆弱性等级的云图。最后,将评估结果与模糊综合评价法进行对比分析,结果表明,民航华北空中交通管理局空管运行系统脆弱性等级总体趋于“较高”水平,不安全事件频发,其中军航活动和管制员因素影响最大。

In order to evaluate the vulnerability of air traffic control(ATC)operation system,this paper first analyzes 1018 unsafe incidents of ATC in 2011-2018,classifies the causes,and extracts the influencing factors of vulnerability of ATC operation system.According to the four aspects of controller,equipment,environment and management of ATC system,as well as five parts including flight crew,airport support,aircraft,dispatch and military aviation activities in operation environment,a total of 28 vulnerability assessment indicators of ATC operation system are summarized.Then,the comprehensive weight is obtained by AHP and entropy weight method.Considering the vulnerability influencing factors,the features of system disturbance are evaluated by using the cloud model with fuzzy and random characteristics.After scoring by Delphi method,the forward cloud generator is applied to draw the cloud chart which can directly reflect the vulnerability level of each indicator.Finally,the evaluation results are compared with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The results show that the vulnerability level of ATC operation system of North China Air Traffic Management Bureau tends to be relatively high,with frequent occurrence of unsafe events,among which military aviation activities and controller factors have greatest effect.