2023年上半年国内外油气资源形势分析及展望

Analysis and prospects of oil and gas resources situation at home and abroad in the first half of 2023

2023年上半年,俄乌冲突造成的外溢效应继续影响世界油气供需格局。后疫情时代,发达经济体增长乏力,全球经济面临多重下行风险,新兴经济体经济复苏提振了油气需求。以沙特阿拉伯为首的产油国继续推行限产保价策略。油气供需动态平衡,国际油价在多重利多利空因素叠加下,在中高位区间震荡,天然气供应紧张的局面得到缓解,气价大幅回落。我国经济发展恢复向好,油气需求增长较快,国内油气勘探开发力度持续加大,矿政管理改革稳步推进,油气勘查开采投资大幅增长,油气找矿取得多项突破,原油产量持续稳步增长,天然气产量保持较快增长。预计2023年,国内原油产量将在2.08亿t左右,天然气(含页岩气和煤层气)产量有望达到2300亿m^(3)。

In the first half of 2023,the spillover effect caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue to affect the world oil and gas supply and demand pattern.In the post pandemic era,developed economies experienced sluggish growth,and the global economy faced multiple downward risks.The economic recovery of emerging economies boosted oil and gas demand.The OPEC+countries led by Saudi Arabia continue to implement a strategy of limited production and price protection.Dynamic equilibrium of oil and gas supply and demand.Under the superposition of multiple positive and negative factors,the international oil price fluctuated between the middle and high levels,the tight situation of natural gas supply was alleviated,and the gas price fell sharply.China’s economic development has recovered well,with a rapid increase in demand for oil and gas.Domestic oil and gas exploration and development efforts continue to increase,mining management reform is steadily advancing,investment in oil and gas exploration and extraction has increased significantly,breakthroughs have been made in oil and gas exploration,crude oil production continues to steadily increase,and natural gas production maintains a rapid growth.It is estimated that in 2023,the domestic crude oil production will be about 208 million tons,and the natural gas(including shale gas and coalbed methane)production is expected to reach 230 billion m^(3).