胰瘘预测模型的优化与应用

The progress on prediction model of pancreatic fistula

随着医疗技术的不断发展,胰腺手术的安全性越来越高,但胰腺术后胰瘘的发生率并没有明显的下降。精准预测术后胰瘘的发生风险可以优化个体治疗方案,有效减少胰瘘的发生。国外有关胰瘘预测模型的研究开展较早,多是大样本、多中心研究,具有较强的预测能力及临床实用性,但并不一定适用于亚洲人群。而国内的相关研究主要集中在近5年,虽然多数是单中心回顾性研究,但人群代表性较好。围绕术前高危因素开展多中心前瞻性临床研究,建立适合我国人群的胰瘘预测模型是今后研究的主要方向。

With the continuous development of medical technology,the safety of pancreatic surgery has gradually improved,but the incidence of pancreatic fistula after pancreatic surgery has not significantly decreased.Accurate prediction of POPF can optimize individual treatment regimens,effectively reducing the occurrence of pancreatic fistula.The research on prediction models of POPF abroad has been carried out earlier,mostly in multicenter with large samples,with strong predictive ability and clinical practicality,but it may not be suitable for the Asian population.Relevant research in China has mainly focused on the past 5 years,and although most of them are retrospective studies from a single center,the population representation is fine.The main direction of future research is to conduct multicenter prospective clinical research around high-risk factors before surgery and establish a predictive model of POPF suitable for the Chinese population.