西安市水资源环境承载力评估与预测研究

Evaluation and Prediction of Carrying Capacity of Water Resources and Environment in Xi'an City

基于水资源环境承载力系统的内涵,从水资源、水环境、社会和经济四方面构建西安市水资源环境承载力指标体系,运用TOPSIS法、模糊综合评判法评估2006—2020年西安市水资源环境承载力状况。基于评估结果,运用GM(1,1)模型预测了未来两年西安市水资源环境承载力变化趋势。结果表明:总体上,2006—2020年西安市水资源环境承载力呈波动上升趋势,各子系统综合评分均呈上升态势;未来两年,水资源环境承载力逐年递增,且都已达优质水平,水环境和经济子系统均为绿灯,社会子系统在2022年上升至绿灯,水资源子系统水平仍堪忧。

Based on the connotation of carrying capacity of water resources and environment system,the index system of carrying capacity of water resources and environment in Xi'an was constructed from four aspects of water resources,water environment,society and economy.The TOPSIS method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were adopted to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources and environment in Xi'an from 2006 to 2020.Based on the evaluation results,GM(1,1)model was used to predict the change trend of carrying capacity of water resources and environment the next two years.The results showed that the carrying capacity of water resources and environment in Xi'an fluctuated and rised,and the comprehensive scores of each subsystem all rised on the whole from 2006 to 2020.In the next two years,the carrying capacity of water resources and environment would increase year by year,and both of them have reached a high-quality level.The water environment and economic subsystem were green lights,and the social subsystem would rise to a green light in 2022,however the level of water resources subsystem was still worrying.