江苏省水稻生产格局演化特征及其影响机制

Rice production pattern evolution characteristics and the influence mechanisms in Jiangsu Province

【目的】研究江苏省水稻生产格局演化特征及其影响机制。【方法】基于2005-2020年江苏省各市域水稻生产面板数据,运用冷热点、多元回归和中介效应分析等方法,分析江苏省水稻生产格局演化特征及其影响机制。【结果】江苏省水稻生产格局“北移”特征明显,集聚特征明显;苏中地区水稻播种面积略显下降,苏北地区水稻播种面积有上升趋势。城镇化对水稻播种面积影响系数为-0.384,城镇化水平的提高导致水稻播种面积缩减。水稻的资源禀赋、产业升级、耕地资源、乡村农业劳动力水平对水稻播种面积的影响系数分别为0.051、1.755、0.884、0.749,其对水稻播种面积有正向促进作用。耕地资源对于水稻播种面积具有中介效应,即在城镇化进程中,耕地资源决定水稻播种面积规模。【结论】江苏省水稻生产格局“北移”特征明显。城镇化对水稻播种面积有负向影响;水稻的资源禀赋、产业升级、耕地资源、乡村农业劳动力水平对水稻播种面积有正向影响。耕地资源对于水稻播种面积具有中介效应。

【Objective】Study on rice production pattern evolution characteristics and the influence mechanisms in Jiangsu Province.【Methods】Based on the panel data of rice production in different City areas in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2020,using hot and cold spots,multiple regression,and mediating effect analysis methods,the rice production pattern evolution characteristics and the influence mechanisms in Jiangsu Province were analyzed.【Results】The rice production pattern in Jiangsu Province had obvious characteristics of“northward shift”and agglomeration.The rice sown area in the central region of Jiangsu slightly decreased,while the rice sown area in the northern region of Jiangsu had increasing trend.The impact coefficient of urbanization on rice sown area was-0.384.The improvement of urbanization level caused the decrease in rice planting area.Rice resource endowment,industrial upgrading,cultivated land resources,and rural agricultural labor force had impact coefficients of 0.051,1.755,0.884,and 0.749 respectively on rice sown area,and had positive promoting effects on rice sown area.Cultivated land resources had mediating effect on rice sown area,that is,in the process of urbanization,cultivated land resources determine the scale of rice sown area.【Conclusion】The rice production pattern in Jiangsu Province had obvious characteristics of“northward shift”.Urbanization had negative effects on the rice sown area,while rice resource endowment,industrial upgrading,cultivated land resources,and rural agricultural labor force had positive effects on rice sown area.Cultivated land resources had mediating effect on rice sown area.