2005-2019年湛江市主要血源及性传播疾病流行特征分析与模型预测

Analysis and model prediction of epidemiological characteristics of main blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases in Zhanjiang City from 2005 to 2019

目的探讨湛江市5种血源及性传播疾病的发病特征,建立求和自回归移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型预测其月发病率,为制定防控策略提供依据。方法收集湛江市2005-2019年5种血源及性传播疾病的报告病例数,分析其流行特征,并为每种疾病构建ARIMA模型。结果湛江市2005-2019年累计报告血源及性传播疾病154477例,年均发病率为148.54/10万,发病率呈长期上升趋势,男性发病数多于女性,主要发生在20~<40岁年龄段,高发人群为农民,好发于廉江市,2月呈发病低谷期。乙型病毒性肝炎(乙肝)、丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝)、HIV/AIDS、淋病最优模型均为ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)_(12),梅毒最优模型为ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,1)_(12),2019年拟合值与真实值的平均绝对百分比误差(mean absolute percentage error,MAPE)分别为7.76%、7.58%、9.39%、19.60%、11.48%。结论2005-2019年湛江市血源及性传播疾病有较高的发病率,且发病有明显的地区、人群分布特点;ARIMA模型在血源及性传播疾病中有较好的预测性能,可通过模型进行短期预测,为合理配置防控资源提供依据。

Objective To explore the incidence characteristics of five blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases in Zhanjiang City,and to establish an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model to predict the monthly incidence,thereby offering a basis for formulating prevention and control strategies.Methods We collected the number of reported cases of five blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases in Zhanjiang City from 2005 to 2019,analyzed the epidemiological characteristics,and constructed an ARIMA model for each disease.Results The cumulative number of reported cases of blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases in Zhanjiang City from 2005 to 2019 was 154477,with an average annual incidence rate of 148.54/100000.The incidence displayed a long-term upward trend and was higher in males than in females.The diseases mainly occurred in the 20-<40 age group,with a high incidence among farmers,and were predominantly prevalent in Lianjiang City,with a low incidence in February.The optimal model for hepatitis B,hepatitis C,HIV/AIDS,and gonorrhea was ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)_(12),and the optimal model of syphilis was ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,1)_(12).In 2019,the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of the fitted and true values was 7.76%,7.58%,9.39%,19.60%and 11.48%,respectively.Conclusions The incidence of blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases in Zhanjiang City from 2005 to 2019 was high,characterized by distinct regional and demographic distributions.The ARIMA model demonstrated good predictive performance for these diseases,proving its usefulness for making short-term predictions and providing a basis for rational resource allocation for disease prevention and control.