基于Apriori算法的布鲁菌病感染相关危险因素关联性

Correlation analysis of risk factors related to brucellosis infection based on Apriori algorithm

目的分析布鲁菌病(布病)感染相关危险因素间的关联作用,为制定布病防控措施提供依据。方法基于全国传染病疫情信息网络直报系统中济宁市2014-2017年数据,识别布病感染高发地区;在高发地区中采用多阶段整群抽样的方法,依靠问卷和血样检测共调查2892人。通过二分类logistic回归分析模型分析布病的危险因素;运用Apriori算法挖掘相关危险因素的关联规则。结果有279人感染布病,感染率为9.65%;logistic回归分析模型显示养殖人员(OR=2.406,95%CI:1.726~3.353)、接触羊(OR=3.323,95%CI:2.448~4.511)、收购皮毛(OR=21.141,95%CI:14.154~31.577)是布病感染的危险因素,差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.001);Apriori算法共挖掘出以感染布病为后项的强关联规则203条,最大提升比为10.37,最小为6.22,不同的危险因素组合对布病感染的可能性在关联强度等方面存在差异。结论布病感染率较高,应重点关注畜牧养殖、羔羊接触及皮毛收购等重点人群;多种危险因素存在紧密关联性,应注意同时具备强关联规则危险因素的人群,开展针对性措施以降低感染风险,筑牢布病防控屏障。

Objective This study aimed to analyze the risk factors associated with brucellosis infection and their interrelations,with a view to formulating preventative and control measures.Methods Based on the data of Jining from 2014 to 2017 from the National Infectious Disease Epidemic Information Network Direct Reporting System,the areas with high incidence of brucellosis were identified;In these areas,we carried out multistage cluster sampling,enlisting 2892 participants for questionnaires and blood samples survey.Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of brucellosis.Apriori algorithm was used to mine association rules of related risk factors.Results A total of 279 people were found to be infected with brucellosis,representing an infection rate of 9.65%.Logistic regression showed that being a breeders(OR=2.406,95%CI:1.726-3.353),contact with sheep(OR=3.323,95%CI:2.448-4.511)and fur purchaing(OR=21.141,95%CI:14.154-31.577)were significant risk factors for brucellosis infection(all P<0.001).The Apriori algorithm mined 203 strong association rules with linking risk factors to brucellosis infection,with lift ratios ranging from 6.22 to 10.37.The strength of correlations varied among different risk factor combinations.Conclusions The infection rate of brucellosis is relatively high,necessitating greater focus on key groups such as those in the breeding industry,individuals in contact with sheep,and those involved in fur purchasing.Given the close interrelation of numerous risk factors,special attention should be given to individuals associated with high-risk factors determined by the strong association rules.Tailored measures are required to lower infection risks,creating a robust defense against brucellosis.