新冠疫情下南亚恐怖主义的发展及趋势

The Development and Trend of terrorism in South Asiain the Context of COVID-19 Pandemic

新冠疫情在席卷南亚之际,也多维度地影响了该地区恐怖主义的当前发展与未来趋向。本文认为,疫情以扩大社会矛盾、变革政府权力基础、催化恐怖主义新模式三种方式影响了恐怖主义的发展。在疫情背景下,南亚的恐怖主义活动整体缓和,但国别情况有所差异。与此同时,南亚恐怖主义呈现出利用互联网平台掀起激进化浪潮、与政府争夺合法性空间、利用阴谋论开展信息战等特征。未来,被疫情压抑的很多恐怖活动有可能在后疫情时代出现报复式增长,南亚国家的恐怖主义活动将可能上升,“独狼”式袭击和生物恐怖主义将构成新的安全威胁。

When the Covid-19 pandemic is sweeping across South Asia it also affects the current development and future trends of regional terrorism in multiple dimensions.Research on the impact of the epidemic on terrorism lacks a distinction between types of modes of action.This paper believes that the pandemic affects terrorism in three ways expanding social conflicts changing the power base of the government and catalyzing a new model of terrorism.In the context of the pandemic terrorist activities in South Asia have generally eased but the situation varies by country.At the same time terrorism in South Asia is characterized as using the Internet platform to set off a wave of radicalization struggle for legitimacy with government and using conspiracy theories to carry out information warfare.In the future the pandemic has suppressed many terrorist activities thus there may be retaliatory growth in the post⁃epidemic era in which terrorist forces in more South Asian countries will riseLone wolf̓attacks and bioterrorism may pose new security threats.