要素成本、OFDI与中国产业“空心化”

Factor Cost, OFDI and the “Hollowing” of Chinese Industries

在中国工业化进程尚未结束、全球价值链面临重构、经济“脱实向虚”趋势明显的背景下,要素成本上升是否通过OFDI的快速增长加剧了国内制造业产业的“空心化”风险?采用2004—2017年东部沿海11个省份的省际面板数据,借鉴钱纳里标准结构模型,研究要素成本、对外直接投资和产业“空心化”之间的关系。结果表明:中国要素成本上升确实会引发产业“空心化”,且劳动力成本上升是造成产业“空心化”的重要推手;要素成本可以通过对外直接投资加剧产业“空心化”风险;其中,劳动力成本的中介效应占总效应比重最大。应科学调控生产要素成本,重点推进中国制造2025,大力发展高新技术产业;同时坚持对外开放,构建“产商融”三位一体的对外直接投资主体结构。

In the context of China’s industrialization process not yet ending,the global value chain facing restructuring,and the trend of economic“destabilization to imagination”being obvious,does the rising factor costs exacerbate the risk of“hollowing out”of China’s manufacturing industry through the rapid growth of OFDI?Based on this,this paper uses the inter-provincial panel data of 11 provinces along the eastern coast from 2004 to 2017 to study the relationship between factor cost,OFDI,and industrial“hollowing out”with reference to the standard structure model of Channery.The results show that the rise of factor costs in China does cause the phenomenon of“hollowing”of the industry,and the rise of labor costs is an important driver of the“hollowing”of the industry;factor costs can accelerate the“hollowing”of the industry through foreign direct investment.Among them,the mediation effect of labor cost accounts for the largest proportion of the total effect.We should scientifically regulate production factor costs,promote Made in China 2025,and vigorously develop hightech industries;at the same time,we should insist on opening up to the outside world and build a trinity of“industry-business-finance”as the main structure of the foreign direct investment.