“互联网+”对中国对外贸易影响效应的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Effect of“Internet+”on China’s Foreign Trade in the Context of Digital China Strategy

推进“互联网+”与对外贸易的深度融合是建设贸易强国的重要着力点。基于我国286个城市的截面数据,分别运用稳健最小二乘估计、分位数回归以及截面门限模型,实证分析“互联网+”对中国对外贸易影响的总体效应、条件性效应以及阶段性特征。研究发现,我国“互联网+”总指数的提升显著促进了对外贸易的发展。并且,“互联网+”总指数的提升对国际贸易的影响效应呈现边际递减。进一步地,“互联网+”总指数的演进对我国对外贸易的影响存在明显的门限效应特征,跨越门限值后“互联网+”对国际贸易的促进作用大幅降低。就空间分布来看,沿海地区城市“互联网+”进程整体领先于内陆与沿边城市,并且在区位条件上具有地理禀赋优势,全国大部分城市“互联网+”与对外贸易的协同发展已进入新阶段。最后,基于实证结果提出了相应政策建议。

Promoting the profound integration of“Internet+”and foreign trade is an important focus of building an advanced trading country.Based on the cross-sectional data of 286 cities in China,this paper uses robust least squares estimation,quantile regression,and cross-sectional threshold models to empirically analyze the overall effect,conditional effect,and stage characteristics of the impact of“Internet+”on China’s international trade.The research found that the improvement of China’s“Internet+”index has significantly promoted the development of foreign trade.Moreover,the increase in the“Internet+”index has a diminishing marginal effect on international trade.Furthermore,the evolution of the“Internet+”index has obvious characteristics of threshold effect on China’s foreign trade.After crossing the threshold,the“Internet+”promotion effect on international trade is greatly reduced.In terms of spatial distribution,cities in coastal areas are generally ahead of inland and border cities in the“Internet+”process,and have geographical endowment advantages in terms of location conditions.Generally speaking,the coordinated development of“Internet+”and foreign trade in most cities in China has entered a new stage.Finally,corresponding policy recommendations are put forward based on the empirical results.