基于土地利用变化的枝江市生态系统服务价值多情景模拟

Multi-scenario simulation of ecosystem service value in Zhijiang City based on land use change

以枝江市为研究范围,采集枝江市2000、2010、2020年三期遥感影像数据,运用ENVI和ArcGIS软件,借助土地利用转移矩阵法、土地利用动态度、生态系统服务价值当量因子法、生态系统服务价值贡献率对土地利用时空演变分析和生态系统服务价值时空分异特征进行分析,使用MCE-CA-Markov模型预测2030年3种情景设定下枝江市土地利用和生态系统服务价值(ESV)变化情况。结果表明,①2000—2020年枝江市土地利用变化显著,建设用地面积急速扩张,主要来源于耕地的转出。土地利用综合动态度较高,单一动态度中建设用地和湿地高达10%/a左右。②单项生态服务价值贡献率以水文调节为最高,各用地类型中水体的生态服务价值贡献率最大,水体对ESV变化的影响最为显著。③ESV的空间分异特征显著,长江以南地区的ESV高于北部区域。整个研究期间枝江市生态系统服务价值呈减少的趋势。④自然发展和耕地保护情景下,2030年的ESV均存在损失,耕地向建设用地流失是ESV减少的关键。生态保护情景下,ESV较2020年增长了7%,减少趋势得到有效遏制。

Taking Zhijiang City as the research area and the remote sensing image data of Zhijiang City in 2000,2010 and 2020 was collected.ENVI and ArcGIS software,with the help of land use transfer matrix methods,land use dynamic index,equivalent factor method of ecosystem service value and the contribution rate of the ecosystem service value,were used to analyse the temporal and spatial evolution of land use and the characteristics of the temporal and spatial differentiation of the ecosystem service value.The MCECA-Markov model was used to predict the change trends of the land use and ecosystem service value(ESV)of Zhijiang City under three scenarios in 2030.The results showed that:①The land use in Zhijiang City significantly changed from 2000 to 2020,and the area of the construction land expanded rapidly,mainly due to the transfer of cultivated land.The comprehensive dynamic degree of land use was relatively high,and the construction land and wetlands in a single dynamic degree were as high as roughly 10%/a.②The hydrological adjustment was the highest amongst the ecological contribution rate of the single ecological service.The ecological contribution rate of the water area was the largest amongst the various types of the land use,which had the most significant impact on ESV changes.③The spatial differentiation of ESV was significant.The ESV in the south of the Yangtze River was higher than that in the north.Overall,the ecosystem service value of Zhijiang City showed a decreasing trend during the whole study period.④A loss of ESV in 2030 would transpire under natural development and cultivated land protection scenarios,and the land loss from the cultivated land to the construction land was the key to reduce ESV.Under the ecological protection scenario,ESV increased by 7%compared with that in 2020,thus curbing the decreasing trend effectively.