山东省粮食生产生态效率评价与驱动因素分析——基于面源污染、碳排放双重视角

Analysis of the eco-efficiency evaluation and driving factors of grain production in Shandong Province:Based on the dual perspective of non-point source pollution and carbon emission

基于非期望产出的SBM-Undesirable模型,对2000—2019年山东省16地市粮食生产生态效率水平进行测度与评价,采用ArcGIS可视化技术和莫兰指数探究其空间格局特征,并构建Tobit模型分析其驱动因素。结果表明,山东省粮食生产生态效率呈波动上升趋势,年均值为0.58,仍存在很大提升空间。空间上表现为明显的差异性,粮食生产生态效率高水平地区逐渐向鲁西北及鲁西南转移;除2002年、2006年、2008年以外,空间上具有显著的正相关性,总体呈现为“H-H”和“L-L”集聚。财政支农水平、农村居民收入水平、种植结构对山东省粮食生产生态效率具有显著的驱动作用,不同地区之间粮食生产生态效率存在溢出效应。

The SBM-Undesirable model based on non-expected output was used to measure and evaluate the eco-efficiency of grain production in 16 cities in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2019.ArcGIS visualization technology and Moran index were used to explore the characteristics of its spatial pattern,and a Tobit model was constructed to analyze its driving factors.The results showed that the eco-efficiency of grain production in Shandong Province showed a fluctuating upward trend,with an annual average value of 0.58,and there was still much room for improvement.Spatially,there were obvious differences,the areas with a high level of eco-efficiency of grain production had gradually shifted to the northwest and southwest of Shandong Province;except for 2002,2006 and 2008,there was a significant positive spatial correlation,and the overall trend was“H-H”and“L-L”agglomeration.The level of financial support for agriculture,the income level of rural residents and the cropping structure had significant driving effects on the eco-efficiency of grain production in Shandong Province,and there were spillover effects on the eco-efficiency of grain production between different regions.