贸易不确定性对中国制造业企业全要素生产率的影响

Impacts of Trade Uncertainty on Total Factor Productivity of Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises

中国经济处于由高速增长向高质量发展阶段转变的攻坚期,推动中国制造业企业升级对其国际竞争力的提升具有重要意义。但由于“逆全球化”思潮和保护主义倾向抬头等一系列事件的发生,加剧了全球贸易的不确定性。以2000-2007年中国工业企业数据为样本,利用引力模型有效测度企业面临的贸易不确定性,实证研究贸易不确定性对中国企业全要素生产率的影响,并深入剖析其影响机制。结果表明:整体而言,贸易不确定性对中国制造业企业全要素生产率具有显著负作用,即贸易不确定性越低,企业生产效率越高;贸易不确定性对出口企业全要素生产率具有显著正向影响,而对非出口企业全要素生产率具有显著负向影响;贸易不确定性主要通过企业研发投入的中介作用影响企业生产率。本研究结论对在贸易不确定性背景下更好地促进中国企业全要素生产率提升具有重要政策启示。

Chinese economy is in a crucial period of transition from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage.The upgrading of manufacturing enterprises is of great significance to the promotion of their international competitiveness.However,a series of events such as the rise of“anti-globalization”thoughts and protectionist tendencies create uncertainties of global trade.Firstly,this paper applies gravity model to effectively measure trade uncertainties faced by Chinese enterprises.Then taking the data of industrial enterprises from 2000 to 2007 as the samples,this paper empirically studies the impact of trade uncertainty on the total factor productivity of Chinese enterprises,and finally makes an in-depth analysis of its influencing mechanism.The empirical results show that:on the whole,trade uncertainty has a significant negative effect on the total factor productivity of Chinese manufacturing enterprises,i.e.the lower the trade uncertainty is,the higher the production efficiency of enterprises can be.Trade uncertainty has a significant positive effect on the total factor productivity of export enterprises and a significant negative effect on the total factor productivity of non-export enterprises.Trade uncertainty possibly affects the productivity of enterprises by influencing their R&D input.The conclusion of the study has important policy implications for promoting the total factor productivity of Chinese enterprises in the context of trade uncertainty.