基于WEAP模型的河北省水资源供需平衡分析

Water resources supply and demand balance in Hebei Province based on WEAP model

采用水资源评价和规划(WEAP)模型,从全省和流域尺度分析了河北省水资源供需平衡关系,在人口预案和节水预案下预测了2030年流域水资源供需变化趋势。结果表明:在不考虑外调水的情况下,2018年河北省缺水量为17.17亿m3,其中农业缺水占94.18%;在流域经济、农业、生态水平保持现状基准年不变的基础上,仅考虑人口发展政策情况下,到2030年河北省需求量为206.53亿m3,与2018年相比增加了14.1%;在提高灌溉水有效利用系数、工业用水重复利用率和降低公共管网渗漏率的情况下,到2030年河北省可节省用水量为2018用水量的7.96%,节水预案可取得显著成效。对该地区进行水资源供需平衡分析研究,能够为水资源综合规划与有效利用、地区可持续发展提供科学依据与实践经验。

This study used the Water Evaluation and Planning system(WEAP)to evaluate the balance between water resources supply and demand in Hebei Province in 2018 at the provincial and watershed scales.Under the population plan and water saving plan,predicts the trend of water resource supply and demand change.The results showed that:Without considering the external water transfer,the water shortage in Hebei Province in 2018 was 1.717 billion m3,of which the agricultural water shortage accounted for 94.18%.On the basis of keeping the economy,agriculture and ecology of each city in the basin unchanged in the current base year,and only consider the population development policy,By 2030,the demand in Hebei Province will be 20.653 billion m3,an increase of 14.1% compared with 2018.On the basis of improving the canal water utilization coefficient,industrial water reuse rate and reducing the leakage rate of public pipe network,the water consumption of Hebei Province can be saved by 2030 to 7.96% of the water consumption in 2018,and the water-saving plan can achieve remarkable results.The analysis of water supply and demand balance in this region can provide scientific basis and practical experience for comprehensive planning and effective utilization of water resources and regional sustainable development.