江苏省县域种植业碳源/汇测算与农业园区空间相关性分析

Spatial Correlation Analysis Between Carbon Source/Sink Measurement and Agricultural Parks in Jiangsu Province

现代农业园区对推动地区种植业绿色低碳转型具有重要作用,统筹兼顾园区发展和减排固碳是种植业实现“双碳”目标的有效手段。基于县域视角测算了2020年江苏省77个县级行政单元种植业碳排放量、碳汇量、净碳汇量以及净碳汇强度,刻画了其空间分布格局,通过了解不同县域现代农业园区主导产业作物种植结构及品种,对园区合理聚类并测算其碳汇强度,结合双变量空间自相关定量识别园区建设与地区净碳汇强度的空间关联模式。结果表明:(1)2020年江苏省各县域种植业净碳汇量均为正值,呈现出碳生态盈余状态,碳排放量、碳汇量、净碳汇量与净碳汇强度均呈现出苏北>苏中>苏南的特征,且不同县域之间差异较大。(2)依据主导产业作物类型,可将江苏省现代农业园区划分为7类,其碳汇强度大小排序依次为粮油作物主导型园区>粮油-花果作物主导型园区>粮油-蔬菜作物主导型园区>花果作物主导型园区>多类作物主导型园区>蔬菜-花果作物主导型园区>蔬菜作物主导型园区。(3)园区建设规模与地区净碳汇强度具有显著空间负相关关系,且局部空间格局呈现低-高集聚连片分布,低-低、高-高和高-低集聚分散分布的特征。

Modern agricultural parks play an important role in promoting the green low-carbon transformation of regional planting industry.Overall consideration of parks development and emission reduction and carbon fixation is an effective means to achieve the dual carbon goal of planting industry.In this study,the carbon emission,carbon sink,net carbon sink and net carbon sink intensity of planting in 77 county-level administrative units in Jiangsu Province in 2020 were measured from the county perspective,and their spatial distribution patterns are described;By understanding the crop planting structure and varieties of the leading industry in modern agricultural parks in different counties,the parks were reasonably clustered and their carbon sink intensity was measured.Further,combined with bivariate spatial autocorrelation,the spatial correlation model between parks construction and regional net carbon sink intensity was quantitatively identify.The results show that:(1)In 2020,the net carbon sink of planting industry in all counties of Jiangsu Province was positive,showing a carbon ecological surplus state.The carbon emission,carbon sink,net carbon sink and net carbon sink intensity showed the characteristics of northern>central>southern of the province,and there were great differences among different counties.(2)According to the types of leading industry crops,modern agricultural parks in Jiangsu Province could be divided into 7 categories,with the carbon sink intensity ranked as:grain-oil crops dominant type>grain-oil and flower-fruit crops dominant type>grain-oil and vegetable crops dominant type>flower-fruit crops dominant type>multiple crops dominant type>vegetable and flower-fruit crops dominant type>vegetable crops dominant type.(3)There was a significant spatial negative correlation between the construction scale of the parks and the regional net carbon sink intensity,the local spatial pattern showed a spatial pattern of"low-high in contiguous distribution,low-low,high-high and high-low in scattered distribution".