四川地区混凝土工程典型质量缺陷的概率分布研究

Study on probability distribution of typical quality defects in concrete works in Sichuan area

基于可靠的检测及鉴定数据,对四川地区多个混凝土工程共千余个构件的截面尺寸偏差、混凝土抗压强度裕度以及最大裂缝宽度等数据进行了统计分析;以不同的概率分布模型对截面尺寸偏差、混凝土抗压强度裕度、最大裂缝宽度的分布进行了拟合,并采用K-S(Kolmogorov-Sminov)检验法确定了各缺陷最适用的概率分布模型;结合概率分布模型和现行相关规范要求,分别对截面尺寸偏差和混凝土抗压强度的合规率进行了预测。拟合结果表明:整体样本的截面尺寸偏差分布最适合用拉普拉斯分布来描述,整体样本的混凝土抗压强度裕度分布更接近于正态分布,而对数正态分布最适用于描述整体样本的最大裂缝宽度分布。基于拟合结果的构件合规率预测结果表明,混凝土工程截面尺寸偏差的合规率约为93.1%,而混凝土抗压强度的合规率约为80.0%。

Based on reliable testing and identification data,section dimension deviations,concrete compressive strength margins and maximum crack widths of more than 1000 components in multiple concrete works in Sichuan area were analyzed statistically.The distributions of section dimension deviations,concrete compressive strength margins and maximum crack widths of components were fitted with different probability distribution models,and the most suitable probability distribution model for each defect was determined by K-S(Kolmogorov-Sminov)test.Combining the probability distribution model and the requirements from current relevant standards,the qualified rates of section dimension deviations and concrete compressive strength were predicted respectively.The fitting results show that Laplace distribution model,normal distribution model and lognormal distribution model can be best used to describe the whole sample’s distribution of section dimension deviations,concrete compressive strength margins and maximum crack widths respectively.The prediction results of component qualified rates based on fitting results show that the qualified rate of dimension deviations of concrete works section is about 93.1%and the qualified rate of concrete compressive strength is about 80.0%.