中国粮食生产环境效率的时空演化特征及其影响因素分析

Spatial-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors Analysis of Environmental Efficiency of Grain Production in China

粮食生产对环境的影响日益受到关注,将粮食生产中产生的非期望产出纳入粮食生产效率测算中,指导实现粮食生产可持续性,对保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。依据改革开放以来1980~2018年粮食生产省级层面数据,分别用SBM模型及面板回归模型等分析内地31个省市区粮食生产环境效率及其时空演化特征和影响因素,结果表明,中国的粮食生产环境效率整体呈现V型演化形态;中国中部粮食生产环境效率高于东部,均远高于西部,东中西部粮食生产环境效率均呈现U型演化形态;中国31个省市区时间演化形态多样:以低位水平波动的居多,其后是L型和整体下降的省市区,粮食生产环境效率高的省市区分布从改革开放初期的南方迁移到“十三五”期间的北方,较低等级粮食生产环境效率的省市区空间分布与低等级的省市区具有一定聚集特征,低等级粮食生产环境效率水平的省市区空间分布相对稳定;农村人均收入、财政支持农业、城镇化率、农村劳动力转移、农村机械化水平、化肥使用量、成灾率对粮食生产环境效率有显著负向作用,灌溉面积比例不显著,其余具有显著正向影响。因此,从科学规划粮食产业区域布局、转变农业增长方式、改善农业投入、调整经济结构、建立科学分配机制和提高农业生产资源的流动等方面提出粮食生产可持续发展、提高粮食生产环境效率建议。

The impact of grain production on the environment is getting more and more attention.It is of great significance for national food security to include the undesired output generated in grain production into the calculation of grain production efficiency and guide the realization of sustainability of grain production.Based on the provincial-level grain production data from 1980 to 2018 since China's reform and opening-up,SBM model and panel regression model were used to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of grain production environmental efficiency in 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China's Mainland,the conclusions were drawn as the followings:The environmental efficiency of grain production in China presented a V-shaped evolution form overall;the environmental efficiency of grain production in central China was higher than that in eastern China,and both of them were much higher than that in western China.The environmental efficiency of grain production in the eastern,central and western regions showed a U-type evolution form;time evolution patterns of 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China were diverse:most provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities fluctuating at low levels,followed by L-shaped and overall declining provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities,the distribution of provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities with high grain production environmental efficiency moving from the south in the early days of reform and opening up to the north during the 13th Five Year Plan period,the spatial distribution of provinces and autonomous regions and municipalities with low level and with the lower level grain production environmental efficiency being clustering characteristics,the spatial distribution of provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities with low level of grain production environmental efficiency being relatively stable;rural per capital income,financial support for agriculture,urbanization rate,rural labor transfer,rural mechanization level,fertilizer use,disasters rate had a significant negative effect on the environmental efficiency of grain production,the proportion of irrigation area was not significant,and the rest had a significant positive effect.On this basis,suggestions on sustainable development of grain production and improving environmental efficiency of grain production were put forward from scientific planning of the regional layout of the grain industry,changing agricultural growth mode,improving agricultural input,adjusting economic structure,establishing scientific distribution mechanism and improving the flow of agricultural production resources.