中国制造业生产率增长动力与新进企业超级成长效应——基于改进的动态Olley-Pakes生产率变化分解方法

Driving Forces of China’s Manufacturing Productivity Growth and the Super Growth Effect of New Enterprises:Base on An Augmented Dynamic Olley-Pakes Productivity Decomposition Method

本文修正了动态Olley-Pakes分解方法在分解多期加总生产率变化时存在的偏误,并将新进企业超级成长效应和退出企业衰退效应纳入分解框架,提出了解释加总生产率增长的一个新视角。利用改进方案对中国制造业生产率增长动力进行归因分析发现:新进企业超级成长效应是制造业生产率增长的重要驱动力量,对1999~2006年间制造业加总生产率增长的贡献超过10%;新进企业超级成长效应对分解窗口长度敏感,且表现出产权性质、产品特征以及地域异质性。

The question of where the drivers of social productivity growth come from is one of the central concerns in the field of economic growth.As research progresses from the macro to the perimeter level,researchers have discovered that the efficiency of resource allocation among firms may also be an important factor in social productivity growth.On this basis,many empirical research approaches have emerged in the field of aggregate productivity decomposition.Based on existing research,it can be seen that most national studies on the drivers of aggregate productivity growth have been decomposed using micro data of industrial enterprises.However,it is interesting to note that using the same data and overlapping sample intervals,researchers have obtained very different dominant drivers of productivity growth.Therefore,this paper improves the additive productivity decomposition method.Based on the DOP,this paper not only solves the problem of measurement bias caused by the inappropriate choice of productivity benchmarks in the decomposition of aggregate productivity change over multiple periods and improves the accuracy of the decomposition of aggregate productivity change,but also incorporates the super-growth effect of new entrants and the decline effect of exiting firms into the framework of aggregate productivity decomposition,thus enriching the connotation of the decomposition of aggregate productivity change.At the same time,this paper updates the perception of the additive productivity driving mechanism of Chinese manufacturing firms.Applying the improved method to decompose the additive productivity change of Chinese manufacturing firms,we find that the super-growth effect of new entrants is an important driver of productivity growth in the Chinese manufacturing sector,contributing more than 10%to the additive productivity growth of the manufacturing sector between 1999 and 2006.This is the first time we have quantified the contribution of the new entrant super-growth phenomenon to overall productivity growth in the literature.This paper corrects the bias of the Olley-Pakes dynamic decomposition method in decomposing the change in aggregate productivity over several periods,and incorporates the super growth effect of new entrants and the decline effect of exiting firms into the decomposition framework,thus presenting a new perspective to explain aggregate productivity growth.The paper uses data from 1998 to 2007 to decompose the change in TFP,employing the“cross-identification method”for sample matching and data cleaning,and the OP method proposed by Olley and Pakes to measure the total factor productivity of the firms in the sample.This paper decomposes the evolution of China’s manufacturing sector between 1999 and 2006 and finds that the super-growth effect of new entrants,i.e.,the faster productivity growth of new entrants relative to surviving firms,is an important driver of manufacturing TFP growth,contributing more than 10%to manufacturing TFP growth.The contribution of the super-growth effect of new entrants increases over time and is characterized by heterogeneity in the nature of ownership rights,the nature of the product and geographical heterogeneity.The research presented in this paper,on the one hand,adds to the research literature in the field of additive productivity decomposition,complements the existing methodology and offers a new perspective to explain additive productivity growth;on the other hand,it helps to identify precisely the relative contribution of different factors to additive productivity growth.On this basis,researchers can better understand the motives for firm entry at the micro level and the contribution of firm entry and exit dynamics to economic growth at the macro level.For example,researchers can examine the characteristics and influencing factors of changing economic growth dynamics,assess the economic effects of national innovation and entrepreneurship policies and business services policies,or examine local government innovation and entrepreneurship policies and business services policies.For example,researchers can examine the characteristics and influencing factors of change in the dynamics of economic growth,assess the economic effects of national innovation and entrepreneurship policies and business services policies,or examine the different effects of local government policies on new and existing businesses,such as investment promotion policies,tax incentives and subsidies for newly established businesses.