农业可持续发展政策的碳减排效力研究--基于国家农业可持续发展试验的经验证据

Study on the Carbon Reduction Effectiveness of Sustainable Agricultural Development Policies--Empirical Evidence Based on National Trials of Sustainable Agricultural Development

虽然工业能源耗费是中国碳排放的主要来源,但随着农业现代化发展,农业生产引起碳排放也不容忽视,可持续发展作为一次对农业生产方式等的系统性变革,给中国农业发展带来新机遇的同时是否具有环境正效应?研究农业可持续发展碳减排效力对国家实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。本文以国家农业可持续发展实验示范区政策为准自然实验,构建了研究农业可持续发展碳减排效力的双重差分模型,利用180个地级市2011—2020年农村碳源相关数据测算了地级市层面农业碳排放量,并从理论和实证两方面对示范区政策是否存在碳减排效力进行了验证。研究表明:第一,示范区政策存在降低农业碳排放的效力,是引起2017年中国农业碳排放大幅下降的原因之一;第二,示范区政策通过减少农业生产物资投入和提高农业劳动生产率两个机制实现碳减排;第三,示范区政策的碳减排效力存在基础设施水平异质性、区域异质性、农业现代化发展水平异质性。

Although industrial energy consumption is the main source of carbon emissions in China,with the modernization of agriculture,carbon emissions caused by agricultural production cannot be ignored.Carbon emissions caused by agricultural production should not be ignored.As a systematic change in agricultural production methods,does sustainable development bring new opportunities to China's agricultural development while having a positive effect on the environment?The study of the carbon emission reduction effect of sustainable agricultural development is of great significance for the country to realize carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.The National Experimental Demonstration Zone for Sustainable Agricultural Development policy is used as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper constructs a DID model to study the carbon emission reduction effect of sustainable agricultural development,and measures the rural carbon emissions at the prefecture level by using the data related to the rural carbon sources of 180 prefectural-level cities from 2011 to 2020,and verifies the existence of the carbon emission reduction effect of the demonstration zone policy in terms of both theory and empirical evidence.The study shows that:first,the effectiveness of the demonstration zone policy exists to reduce agricultural carbon emissions,which is one of the reasons that caused a significant decline in China's agricultural carbon emissions in 2017;second,the demonstration zone policy achieves carbon emission reduction through two mechanisms:reducing agricultural production material inputs and improving agricultural labor productivity;third,the carbon emission reduction effect of the demonstration zone policy exists in the form of heterogeneity in the level of infrastructure,regional heterogeneity,and the development level of agricultural modernization.