中国民航典型征候的趋势研究

Study on trend of typical incidents of civil aviation in China

为研究中国民航征候数量的变化趋势,根据中国民用航空安全信息统计报告,收集中国民航2000—2020年的5591条征候数据;通过扩展的迪克富勒(ADF)检验、恩格尔-格兰杰(EG)检验等时间序列分析技术,分析中国民航总征候数量与7种典型征候数量的趋势特征;结合行业飞行小时(FH)数据,探究总征候数量、不同典型征候数量与飞行小时数的长期均衡关系。结果表明:2000—2020年,全行业的飞行小时数与总征候数总体呈现增长趋势,为非平稳的单位根过程;在7种典型征候中,鸟击、雷击、撞障碍物和危险接近的数量具有非平稳特征,且前3种征候呈上升趋势。发动机空中停车、冲、偏出跑道、非起落架部位接地的数量为趋势平稳过程,并呈现下降趋势;总征候及鸟击、雷击、撞障碍物等具有上升趋势的典型征候和飞行小时同阶单整,雷击征候数与飞行小时数之间存在稳定的长期均衡关系即协整关系,协整回归模型显示飞行小时数变动1%,雷击征候数量也将随之同向变动2.059%。

To study the trend of the number of civil aviation incidents in China,this study collected 5591 incident data from 2000 to 2020 through the China civil aviation safety information statistical report,and analyzed the trends and characteristics of total incidents and seven typical incidents by using time series analysis techniques such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller(ADF)test and Engle-Granger(EG)test,and explored the long-term equilibrium relationship between incidents and flight hours.The results show that the number of flight hours and the total number of incidents show an overall increasing trend from 2000 to 2020,which is a non-stationary unit root process.Among the seven typical incidents,bird strike,lightning strike,obstacle hit and near miss are non-stationary,and the first three incidents have an increasing trend.Engine in flight shutdown,runway overrun/excursion and non-landing gear grounding have a stable decreasing trend.The total incidents and the typical incidents of bird strike,lightning strike,and obstacle hit are the same as the integration order of flight hours.There is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between lightning strikes and flight hours,which is called co-integration relationship.The co-integration regression model shows that a 1%change in the number of flight hours will be followed by a 2.059%change in the number of lightning strikes in the same direction.