全球经济政策不确定性对中国农产品价格的溢出效应研究

Research on the spillover effect of global economic policy uncertainty on China’s agricultural product prices

基于农产品供应链国际成本视角,采用TVP-VAR模型实证检验了全球经济政策不确定性对中国农产品价格的溢出效应。研究发现:全球经济政策不确定性上升显著提高了中国农产品价格,且存有5个月的时滞期;全球经济政策不确定性对农产品价格的正向带动效应呈现明显时变特征,自新冠疫情在全球范围大流行以来,其正向促进效应显著增强;国际油价构成了全球经济政策不确定性对国内农产品价格冲击的成本渠道。管理层应密切关注全球经济政策不确定性对国内农产品价格的影响,加强农产品生产链环节的科技投入,大力发展绿色能源、生物能源,尽量降低农产品供应链环节对国际原油的依赖程度。

Based on the perspective of international cost of agricultural product supply chain,this paper uses TVP-VAR model to test the spillover effect of global economic policy uncertainty on China’s agricultural prices.The results show that the rising uncertainty of global economic policy significantly increases the price of China’s agricultural products,but there is a 5-month lag period;The positive driving effect of global economic policy uncertainty on the price of agricultural products shows obvious time-varying characteristics,and its positive driving effect has significantly increased sincethe outbreak of COVID-19.International oil prices constitute a cost channel for the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on domestic agricultural prices.The management departments should pay close attention to the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on the price of domestic agricultural products,strengthen scientific and technological investment in the production chain of agricultural products,vigorously develop green energy and bioenergy,and try to reduce the dependence of the supply chain of agricultural products on international crude oil.