论中国人口老龄化的变异与转型

On Factors Change and Patterns Transfer of Population Aging in China

基于对人口老龄化发生原理的认识拓展,文章聚焦当代中国的人口老龄化及其演进态势,在将“三大人口年龄组”的观测拓展为“五个人口年龄组”的基础上,借助联合国WPP2022统计数据,阐释当代中国人口老龄化呈现的阶段特征、致因转换、形态变异及其因果关联。研究发现,在低生育与长寿命态势下,当代中国人口老龄化已进入加速发展阶段,其主导因素正在从“生得少”导致的“少子老龄化”转向“活得长”主导的“老人高龄化”;相应地,其人口形态也在从“底部老龄化”导向“顶端老龄化”。中国人口老龄化的这种变异与转型背后隐现着从内在致因到外在形态的人口学差异。然而,基于生育率下降(生得少)主导时期建构起来的“少子老龄化”认知体系及其评价标准难以解释平均余寿提高(活得长)态势下的“老人高龄化”现象。鉴此,文章提出,中国应对人口老龄化的中长期战略需要与时俱进,突破传统观念和现行制度框架对“老年人”和“老龄化”的束缚,摒弃平均预期寿命60岁情形下形成的老龄化共识,以平均预期寿命迈向80岁的人口情势来确立应对人口老龄化的国家战略,并建构“老人高龄化”主导下的新认知标准及评估体系,据此为我们认识和应对中国人口老龄化的时代特征与预期影响提供理论支撑。

Based upon expanding cognition to the principle of population aging,the paper focus on today’s Chinese population aging and its trend,try to reveal its period feature,cause change,pattern convert and cause and effect asso⁃ciation with the UN date of World Population Prospects 2022.According to the new age re-partitioning and analysis,The paper show us that contemporary population aging of China is getting into accelerating stage at the situation of low fertility and longer life span,the cause of aging are transferring from“the aging of less children”to“the aging of elder⁃ly”.Accordingly,the pattern of age pyramid are also changing from“the aging of bottom”to“the aging of top”.Those kind of transfer show the demographic different at its factors and patterns.However,the cognition system and evaluation criterion based on the trend of fertility go down to contemporary China’s population aging cannot interpretation to the trend of aging of elderly due to alive longer.Therefor,the paper propose that Chinese strategy of population aging should be keeping up with the time,breaking through the restriction of tradition view and system frame to the“elderly people”and“population aging”,abandon common view of aging at 60 years of life expectancy,establishing state strate⁃gy of population aging face to the 80 years of life expectancy,constructing new cognition and evaluation system to the leading of“aging of elderly people”,it will promoted theory evidence for our understanding the characters and impacts on Chinese population aging.