贸易政策不确定性与企业出口技术复杂度——理论机制与实证检验

Uncertainty of Trade Policy and Complexity of Export Technology of Enterprises:Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Test

基于贸易政策不确定性与企业出口技术复杂度的理论机制,选取2010一2021年4058家上市公司数据进行实证检验。结果表明:贸易政策不确定性对企业出口技术复杂度具有显著负向作用,考虑内生性与稳健性后该结论依然成立。异质性检验发现,贸易政策不确定性对制造业企业出口技术复杂度的负向影响更为显著;相较于国有企业与中小型企业而言,非国有企业和大型企业更易受到贸易政策不确定性的冲击。机制研究得出,债务短期化与融资约束是贸易政策不确定性影响企业出口技术复杂度的重要中介机制;“稳外资”在贸易政策不确定性影响企业出口技术复杂度过程中发挥正向调节作用。

Based on the theoretical mechanism of the uncertainty of trade policy and the complexity of enterprises'export technology,this paper uses the data of 4058 listed companies from 2010 to 2021 to conduct an empirical test.The result shows that the uncertainty of trade policy has a significant negative effect on the complexity of enterprises export technology,and the conclusion is still valid after considering endogenous and robustness.Further research found that the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on the export technology complexity of manufacturing enterprises is more significant.Compared with state-owned enterprises and small and mediumsized enterprises,non-state-owned enterprises and large enterprises are more vulnerable to the impact of trade policy uncertainty.The intermediary effect analysis shows that the short-term debt and financing constraints are the important mechanisms of trade policy uncertainty affecting the export technology complexity of enterprises."Stabilizing foreign investment"plays a positive regulatory role in the process of trade policy uncertainty affecting the complexity of enterprises'export technology.