缅甸政治体制的变迁与政治不稳定内因探析

An Analysis of the Changes in Myanmar's Political System and the Internal Causes of Its Political Instability

自“二战”后独立至今,缅甸的政治体制发生了三次重要的变迁。从议会制民主政体,再到军人集团威权政体,最后到结合了二者的“混合政体”。军人集团在缅执政时间超过半个世纪,2011年民选的昂山素季政府上台被普遍认为是军人集团威权政体在缅甸的终结。缅甸开始探索独特的“混合政体”道路,国际社会普遍对缅甸的政治民主化持乐观和期待的态度。然而,2021年国防军实施的军事政变使缅甸政治民主化进程遭受了巨大挫折。从政治学视角看,缅甸作为后发展国家,其政治不稳定的内因主要为:政治民主化发展受阻;市场化改革不彻底;族群冲突。

Myanmar’s political system has undergone three important changes since its independence after World War II:from a par-liamentary democracy,to an authoritarian regime led by the military govermment,and finally to a"Mixed Goverment"that combines both.The military government group had been in power in Myanmar for over half a century,and the election of Aung San Suu Kyi's govermment in 2011 was widely regarded as the end of the military government group's authoritarian regime in Myanmar.Myanmar has begun to explore a unique"Mixed Government"path,and the international community generally holds an optimistic and hopeful attitude towards Myanmar's political democratization.However,the military coup carried out by the National Defense Forces in 2021 has caused a signifcant setback to the political democratization process in Myanmar.From the perspective of political science,the main internal factors contributing to the po-litical instability in Myanmar as a developing country are:obstacles to the development of political democratization,incomplete market-ori-ented reforms,and ethnic conflicts.