中国省域“三重”开放的动力因素及空间效应

On the Dynamic Factors and Spatial Effects of China’s Provincial Triple Opening-up

基于双循环新发展格局,应用空间杜宾模型(SDM)实证研究了“三重”开放的相关影响因素与空间效应。研究结果表明,比较优势、竞争优势、产业升级和政府有为干预对“三重”开放发展均具有正向促进作用,各动力因素在开放发展中具有协同效应,共同推动了“三重”开放协调发展;从空间效应看,比较优势、竞争优势、产业升级和政府政策以及基础设施对省域“三重”开放发展均具有正的空间溢出效应,且呈现显著的直接和间接影响效应。不同省域“三重”开放发展存在相互依赖的密切关系,本地区开放水平的提高将会对其他地区开放发展具有促进作用;从空间互动系数看,“三重”开放具有空间负相关特征,表明国内外市场尚未形成良好的互动关系,动力因素的空间溢出效应为负外部性,表明区域开放的外部性内部化和内部性外部化机制缺失;从空间异质性看,东部地区开放发展的各动力因素产生显著的直接效应和间接效应,而中西部地区尚未显现。研究认为新发展格局下实现高水平的开放,不仅要激发本区域开放发展的活力,也须从区域整体视角统筹协调,逐渐消除省域开放发展进程中的相互掣肘并激发省域的相互带动,才能有效构建全国统一大市场,畅通国际国内双循环。

On the basis of the new development pattern of double circulation,this paper empirically studies the relevant influencing factors and spatial effects of the triple opening-up by using Spatial Dubin Model(SDM).The results show that,comparative advantage,competitive advantage,industrial upgrading and government intervention have positive effect on the triple opening-up development,and each dynamic factor takes synergistic effect on the opening development,which jointly promotes the coordinated development of the triple opening-up.From the perspective of spatial effects,comparative advantage,competitive advantage,industrial upgrading,government policies and infrastructure all have positive spatial spillover effects on the development of provincial triple opening-up,presenting significant direct and indirect effects.There is a close interdependent relationship among the triple opening-up development of different provinces.The improvement of the opening level of this region will promote the opening development of other regions.From the perspective of spatial interaction coefficient,the triple opening-up has the characteristic of spatial negative correlation,indicating that domestic and foreign markets have not formed a good interaction.The spatial spillover effect of dynamic factors is characterized by negative externalities,indicating that the mechanism of both external internalization and internal externalization of regional opening is absent.According to the spatial heterogeneity,the dynamic factors of opening development in eastern China have significant direct and indirect effects,while those in central and western China have not yet appeared.The research believes that,to achieve a high level of opening under the new pattern of development,it is not only necessary to stimulate the vitality of opening development in this region,but also must coordinate from the perspective of overall region,gradually eliminate mutual constraints in the process of provincial opening development and strengthen mutual promotion among provinces,so as to effectively build a unified national market and develop the international and domestic double circulation.